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POLAR BEAR SPORT HUNTIN G IN NUNAVUT, CANADA: PERSPECTIVES ON POLAR BEAR CONSERVATION AND THE ENDANGERED SPECIES ACT BY TAIT MANDLER A Thesis Submitted to the Division of Natural Sciences New College of Florida In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree Bachelor of Arts in Environmental Studes Under the sponsorship of Diana Weber, Ph.D. Sarasota, FL May, 2012
ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First and foremost I need to thank my sponsor, Dr. Diana Weber, without whose guidance and reassurance this thesis (and hence this ac knowledgements page) would not exist. Her passion for polar bears sparked my fascination with this topic and provided countless hours of excited conversation. I would also like to extend my gratitude to Dr. Erin Dean, who first exposed me to the field of anthropology and has opened my mi nd to new ways of perceiving the world. Without the companionship of Jeanne La Roche I would have succumbed to insanity long ago and although she may not r ealize it, she has been integral to my completion of this project. I thank her from the bottom of my heart for sharing the past two years of ( mostly ) good times with me. Of course, I also thank my parents fo r bringing me into existence, tirelessly encouraging me to pursue my interests, a nd providing me with financial and emotional support. Finally, I have to thank New College as a whole for teaching me how to grow. It has been an intense, encouraging, weird, fa scinating, awkward, stimulating, emotional, wonderful, confusing, but mostly indescribabl e experience spending the past four years with you and even though I cant wait to leave you behind, Il l always carry a piece of you with me.
iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter Page ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ...................................................................................................... ii LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................ ... vi LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................... vii ABBREVIATIONS ............................................................................................................... v iii ABSTRACT ...................................................................................................................... ....... ix CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION ..............................................................................................1 CITES and the IUCN Red List .......................................................................................2 Polar Bear Sport Hunting in Nunavut, Canada .............................................................3 Thesis Purpose and Goals .............................................................................................5 References ................................................................................................................... .........6 CHAPTER 2 CONSERVATI ON OR EXPLOITATION........................................................12 The Polar Bear Sport Hunt .................................................................................................12 Commodification of the Polar Bear .............................................................................12 The Current Flexible Quota System in Nunavut ..........................................................13 The Polar Bear Sport Hunt and Conservation ....................................................................16 Adaptive Management .................................................................................................16 Contribution to Shortand Long-Term Species Viability ............................................18 Size and Quality of Habitat ..........................................................................................21 Contributions to Inuit Communities .............................................................................22 References ................................................................................................................... .......25 CHAPTER 3 THE SPORT HUNT AND THE ESA ...............................................................34 Before the Endangered Species Act ...................................................................................34 Agreement for the Conservation of Polar Bears ..........................................................34 The Marine Mammals Protection Act ..........................................................................35 The ESA Listing .............................................................................................................. ..36 Goals and Process of Listing the Polar Bear ..............................................................36
iv Results of the Listing ....................................................................................................38 References ................................................................................................................... .......40 CHAPTER 4 CLIMATE CHA NGE IN THE ARCTIC ..........................................................43 Arctic Climate Change .......................................................................................................4 3 Arctic Amplification .....................................................................................................43 Arctic Climate Change and the Biosphere ...................................................................46 Arctic Climate Change and the Polar Bear ........................................................................47 Sea Ice Timing and Variability ....................................................................................47 Denning and Reproduction ..........................................................................................48 Evolutionary Biology: Pathogens and Hybridization ..................................................50 The Future of the Polar Bear .......................................................................................52 Climate Change and the Inuit ............................................................................................53 Potential Effects on the Inuit ........................................................................................54 References ................................................................................................................... .......56 CHAPTER 5 CONLCUSIONS ...............................................................................................64 References ................................................................................................................... .......67 APPENDIX A THE BIOLOGY OF THE POLAR BEAR .....................................................68 General Description .....................................................................................................68 Ringed Seal and Other Prey ........................................................................................69 Movement and Range ...................................................................................................72 Mating and Life History ...............................................................................................72 References ................................................................................................................... .......75 APPENDIX B THE INUIT .....................................................................................................79 Paleo-Inuit History ......................................................................................................79 Inuit Subsistence, Whaling, and the Formation of Canada .........................................79 Fur Trading and Arctic Resource Commodification (1900s 1950s) ......................81 Current Mixed-Economy Development ........................................................................82 The Inuit and Contemporary Globalization .................................................................84 References ................................................................................................................... .......87 APPENDIX C GLBOAL CLIMATE CHANGE ....................................................................88
v Effects of Climate Change ...........................................................................................89 Anthropogenic or Natural? ....................................................................................91 References .................................................................................................................... ............94
vi LIST OF TABLES CHAPTER 2 Table 1: Estimated polar bear abundances and TAH by subpopulation .......29
vii LIST OF FIGURES CHAPTER 1 Figure 1: Polar bear ...............................................................................................8 Figure 2: Polar bear subpopulations ....................................................................9 Figure 3: Subpopulations and year of estimate .................................................10 Figure 4: Map of Canada ....................................................................................11 CHAPTER 2 Figure 1: Total Nunavut quota versus legal harvest .........................................30 Figure 2: An illustration of an Allee effect ........................................................31 Figure 3: Evolutionary effects of human harvest on population dynamics ....32 Figure 4: An illustration of the Inuit mixed-economy ......................................33 CHAPTER 3 Figure 1: USGS predictions of polar bear survival by subpopulation ............42 CHAPTER 4 Figure 1: Mechanism of Arctic amplification ...................................................... 62 Figure 2: Reduced September sea ice extent ...................................................... 63 APPENDIX A Figure 1a: Furred polar bear foot pad ...............................................................78 Figure 1b: Grizzly bear foot pad ........................................................................78
viii ABBREVIATIONS ACIA Arctic Climate Impact Assessment ACPB Agreement for the Conservation of Polar Bears CBD Center for Biological Diversity CITES Convention on the Internationa l Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora ESA Endangered Species Act GHG Greenhouse Gas GN Government of Nunavut HTO Hunter and Trappers Organization ICC Inuit Circumpolar Council ITK Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami IQ Inuit Qaugimajatuaqangit IUCN International Union fo r the Conservation of Nature MMPA Marine Mammal Protection Act NLCA Nunavut Land Claims Agreement NRDC National Resources Defense Council NTI Nunavut Tunngavik Inc. NWMB Nunavut Wildlife Management Board MOU Memorandum of Understanding PBSG Polar Bear Specialist Group POP Persistent Organic Pollutants TAH Total Allowable Harvest TEK Traditional Ecological Knowledge USFWS United States Fish and Wildlife Service USGS United States Geological Survey
ix POLAR BEAR SPORT HUNTIN G IN NUNAVUT, CANADA: PERSPECTIVES ON POLAR BEAR CONSERVATION AND THE ENDANGERED SPECIES ACT Tait Mandler New College of Florida, 2012 ABSTRACT Polar bears are the iconic symbol of the Ar ctic and the imminent changes to this ecosystem. As an ice-obligate marine mamma l, polar bears are found circumpolar in 19 subpopulations, with 13 in Canada. Concerns ab out potential impacts climate change will have on the Arctic environment prompted listing polar bears under the United States Endangered Species Act. Previously, US sport h unters were able to participate in certain Canadian Inuit-led polar bear hunts in subpopul ations having scientifically established quotas. After the ESA listing, US importation of polar bear trophies was prohibited and the US, in effect, surrendered its ability to influence which subpopulations are hunted by US citizens. This list ing did not affect quotas in Nunavut, Canada so the number of bears taken each year is the same, regardless if US sport hunters are involved. Without income from the sport hunt, the Inuit have less flexibil ity to comply with polar bear conservation measures. Current earnings from a single spor t hunt are equivalent to at least ten times the number of bears taken for their pelts, th e latter scenario drastically increasing the potential loss of bears. International polar bear management, including Canadian sport hunts, has been considered one of the most effective conservation programs for a large
x carnivore. However, the early stages of th e ESA listing indicate it may have done the opposite of its desired intent to strengthen pol ar bear conservation. He re, I investigate if sport hunts in Nunavut contribut e to polar bear conservation and implications for this apex predator. _______________________ Diana Weber, Ph.D.
1 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION The polar bear ( Ursus maritimus Phipps 1774) (Figure 1) has become one of the most prominent charismatic megafauna species, due to its large size, iconic white coat, role as an apex predator, and image as the st oic inhabitant of an ecosystem perceived to be harsh and unforgiving (Foote et al. 2009). For the general public, it is the definitive symbol of the Arctic; but on an even greater scale, the polar bear has come to represent the impending dangers of climate change, whic h threatens the entire biosphere. The polar bear is a highly specialized ice-obligate ma rine mammal with a circumpolar distribution that includes 19 semi-discrete subpopulations (Figure 2) thro ughout Arctic regions of the United States, Canada, Denmark (for Green land), Norway, and Russia, collectively referred to as the 'polar bear nations' (Obba rd et al. 2010). The total polar bear population is estimated to be between 20,000 and 25,000 i ndividuals (Figure 3) with two-thirds, approximately 15,500 bears in 13 subpopulations, having ranges wholly or partially in Canada (Obbard et al. 2010). See Appendix A for a more complete overview of the basic biology of the polar bear. In May 2008, after three y ears of assessment and delib eration, the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) listed the polar bear as a threatened species under the United States Endangered Species Act (ESA) because of concerns about future habitat size and quality (Federal Register 2008). Th e data the listing was based on has been criticized as inaccurately portraying the dangers to the polar bear and failing to account for the Inuit as stakeholders in polar bear conservation (Jones 2010; Kuhn 2010). The
2 United States government used the same data in an attempt to ch ange the polar bear status under the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) but CITES member nations found th e data to be inadequate (Parsons and Cornick 2011). CITES and the IUCN Red List CITES, enacted in 1973, was developed by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) to regulate internati onal trade in the pa rts and products of endangered species and curre ntly over 170 countries have implemented the treaty (Parsons and Cornick 2011). Commercial an d noncommercial trade is regulated to varying degrees for each species based on th eir population health, and subsequent CITES designation, Appendix I, II, or III. Appendix I listed species are those nearest extinction, Appendix II includes species not considered directly threatened by extinction, but could be if not protected, and Appendix III are sp ecies listed by individual countries requesting international cooperation in regulating trade in parts and products of those listed species. In 1975, the polar bear was listed under CITES Appendix II and in 2009, the United States proposed that the polar bear status be changed to Appendix I, which required a two-thirds vote of support from the CITES signatorie s (Larsen and Stirling 2009; Parsons and Cornick 2011). The US proposal was based on data from US Geological Survey (USGS) that predicted a two-thirds reduction in the polar bear population within 40 years; a ci rcumstance that would satisfy the Appendix I requirement of a marked population decline (Amstrup et al. 2007). In response to this proposal, the IUCN and Traffic International (TRAFFIC) conducted an analysis of the proposal and
3 health of the population (IUCN and TRAFFIC 2010). In 2006, the IUCN revised the Red List (a compilation of threatened species used to guide conservation activities) status of the polar bear from conservation dependent to vulnerable, indica ting concern within the organization for the status of the sp ecies. However, the IUCN/TRAFFIC analysis determined that the polar bear did not meet the criteria for Appendix I (Parsons and Cornick 2011). This analysis was based on information from the IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group (PBSG), which provided le ss ominous projections than USGS by considering the variation betw een polar bear subpopulation nu mbers and environments to prevent extrapolated population-wide conclusions (IUCN and TRAFFIC 2010). Additionally, the IUCN/TRAFFIC analysis referred to the already extensive and established management of polar bears under the 1973 Agreement for the Conservation of Polar Bears (ACPB) and the belief that the current take is mostly sustainable. Accordingly, the proposal was not successful at the 15th Conference of the Parties to CITES (CITES CoP15), earning only 48 votes of support but 62 votes in opposition, with 11 abstentions (Parsons and Cornick 2011). Polar Bear Sport Hunting in Nunavut, Canada The 2008 ESA listing of the polar bear triggered a clause in the United States Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) that restricted importation of polar bear products into the Unites States, discouraging US hunters from participating in Canadian polar bear sport hunting because their troph ies could no longer be imported (Foote and Wenzel 2009). Although the Canadian sport hunt has come under scrutiny as unnecessary exploitation, it has also been considered an important aspect of polar bear conservation
4 by economically and culturally contributing to Inuit communities (Freeman and Foote 2009; Waters et al. 2009). The Inuit (singular : Inuk) are an indigenous people who have historically inhabited the Ar ctic regions of Alaska, Canada, Greenland, and Russia and are currently the most dispersed indigenous people on the planet; their lands encompass half of the Earth no rth of the Arctic Circle (Stern 2010). Inuit is an ethnonym meaning the people in the Inuit language, Inuktitut (the Inuit way [of speaking]). A majority of the Inuit in Canada lives in the territory of Nunavut (our land in Inuktitut), which comprises approximately 30,000 individuals dispersed into 26 towns and villages (Figure 4). The Nunavummiut (the people of Nunavut) al so live with many polar bears; of the 13 subpopulations in Canada, 12 range, at least partially, within the borders of Nunavut (Obbard et al. 2010). See Appendix B for an ove rview of the sociopolitical history of the Inuit, including how they came to inhabit their current lands. The polar bear, called nanuq in Inuktitut, holds a highly visible place in Inuit culture and cosmology, as the bear has been pa rt of the Inuit subsistence for millennia (Wenzel 2005). Wenzel (2005) suggests that the foundation of the Inuit-polar bear relationship is their long history sharing the role as the Arctic apex predator. Inuit folklore emphasizes the similarities between humans and polar bear s, thus considering both equal in intelligence and deserving of respect (Boas 1888; DAnglure 1990). The Inuit and the polar bear share a similar diet and use similar hunting techniques, especially for seals (Wenzel 2008); this suggests that the Inuit may have learned to thrive in their environment, in part, by observing polar bear behavior. Current ly, sport hunting has become an important source of inco me for many Inuit households, bringing
5 approximately US$3 million into Canada a nnually (Taylor 2006). This has added a new dimension to the Inuit/polar bear relationship (Wenzel 2008) Thesis Purpose and Goals The purpose of this thesis is to examine the complex, international issue of polar bear sport hunting and conservation in Nunavut, Canada. Here, I synthesize anthropological and ecological data to fully understand the repercussions of the United States Endangered Species Act to the polar bear and present the exploitation debate within the context of Arctic climate change and evolutiona ry ecology. In particular, to understand the effects of the 2008 listing of the polar bear as threatened under the ESA, I examined if polar bear spor t hunting in Nunavut c ontributes to polar bear conservation, the reasons for the listing, how climate change is affecting this issue, and the implications for the polar bear and the Inuit.
6 REFERENCES Amstrup S, Marcot B & Douglas D 2007 Forecasti ng the range-wide status of polar bears at selected times in the 21st century. USGS Admi nistrative Report. Boas F 1888 The central eskimo Washington DC: Smithsonian Institute Bureau of Ethnology. D'Anglure S 1990 Nanook, super-male: The polar bear in the imaginary space and social time of the Inuit of the Canadian Arctic in: Signifying animals: Human meaning in the natural world Willis R, ed. New York, NY: Routledge, 178. Derocher A 2012 Polar bears: A complete guide to their biology and behavior Baltimore, Maryland: John Hopkins University Press. Foote L & Wenzel G 2009 Polar bear conservation hunting in Canada: Economics, culture, and unintende d consequences in: Inuit, Polar Bears, and Sustainable Use: Local, national, and international perspectives Freeman M & Foote L, eds. Alberta, Canada: CCI Press, 13-24. Foote L, Krogman N, Clark D & Johnston L 20 09 Polar bears in the Media: The ways in which we know the Icon in: Inuit, polar bears, and sustain able use: Local, national, and international perspectives. Freeman M & Foote L, eds. Alberta, Canada: CCI Press, 187195. Freeman M & Foote L 2009 Introduction in: Inuit, polar bears, and sustainable use: Local, national, and international perspectives Freeman M & Foote L, eds. Alberta, Canada: CCI Press, 1-12. IUCN & TRAFFIC 2010 IUCN/TRAFFIC analyses of the proposals to ammend the CITES appendices Prepared by IUCN Species Programme, SSC & TRAFFIC for the 15th Meeting of the Conference of the Partie s to CITES. Gland, Sw itzerland: IUCN. Jones M 2010 The social construc tion of a threatened species: A critical analysis of polar bear discourse. Montreal, Canada: McGill University. Kuhn M 2010 Climate change and the polar bear : Is the endangered species act up to the task? Alaska Law Review 27(1), 125-150. Larsen T & Stirling I 2009 The agreement on th e conservation of polar bears its history and future. Norsk Polarinstitutt Report 127, Tromso, Norway. Obbard M, Thiemann G, Peacock E & DeBruyn T 2010 Polar bears. Proceedings of the 15th working meeting of the IUCN/SSC Pola r Bear Specialist Group June 29 July 3, 2009 Copenhagen, Denmark. Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge, UK: IUCN.
7 Parsons E & Cornick L 2011 Sweeping scientific data under a polar bear skin rug: The IUCN and the proposed listing of po lar bears under CITES Appendix I. Mar Policy 35, 729-741. Stern P 2010 The daily life of the Inuit Santa Barbara, California: Greenwood. Stirling I 2011 Polar bears: The natural history of a threatened species Ontario, Canada: Fitzhenry & Whiteside. Taylor M 2006 RE: proposed up -listing of polar bear to t hreatened status under the US endangered species act. Department of Environment, Government of Nunavut. Waters M, Rose N & Todd P 2009 The econo mics of polar bear trophy hunting in Canada. Joint publication of the Internati onal Fund for Animal Welfare and Humane Society International. Wenzel G 2005 Nunavut Inuit and the polar b ear: The cultural politic s of the sport hunt in: Senri Ethnological Studies 67 Indigenous use and manageme nt of marine resources Kishigami N & Savelle J, eds. Osaka, Ja pan: National Museum of Ethnology, 363-388. Wenzel G 2008 Sometimes hunting can seem like busin ess: Polar bear sport hunting in Nunavut Alberta, Canada: CCI Press. Wikipedia Commons [Internet] 2008 Nuna vut, Canada. [Published September 8 2008 Accessed May 9 2012] http://en.wikiped ia.org/wiki/File:Nunavut,_Canada.svg USFWS Endangered and threatened wildlife a nd plants; Determination of threatened status for the polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) throughout its range: final rule. Federal Register 2008 73(95), 28212-28303.
8 Figure 1. Polar bear. The circumpolar distributed iceobligate marine mammal (taken from Derocher 2012).
9 Figure 2. Polar bear subpopulations. Polar bears are divided into 19 subpopulations with 13 in Canada (outlined in blue). Th e 12 subpopulations wholly or partially in Nunavut are Northern Beaufort, Viscount Melville, MClintock Channel, Western Hudson Bay, Southern Hudson Bay, Foxe Ba sin, Gulf of Boothia, Lancaster Sound, Norwegian Bay, Kane Basin, Baffin Bay, Davis Strait (taken from Obbard et al. 2010).
10 Figure 3. Subpopulation numbers and year of estimate (taken from Stirling 2011).
11 Figure 4. Map of Canada. Nunavut is shaded and labe led (adapted from Wikipedia Commons 2008). Nunavut
12 CHAPTER 2 CONSERVATION OR EXPLOITATION THE POLAR BEAR SPORT HUNT The Commodification of the Polar Bear The process of perceiving and trea ting the polar bear as a commodity [commodification] began at the turn of the 20th century with increasing trade of Inuitharvested furs to commercial ships (Wenzel 2004b; 2005). This attitude culminated in the 1940s with the Inuit selling polar bear products in cons iderable numbers. Modern firearms became available in greater numbers in the Arctic, which facilitated commodification, giving the Inuit a distinct advantage when hunting polar bears (Wenzel 2004b). From the 1950s to the 1970s, trad e in polar bear hides escalated from substantial increases in value, analogous to sealskins. A lthough sealskins were a more important commodity because of numbers traded, polar bear pelts provided a much higher price, which peaked by mid-1970 a nd stabilized by 1980 (Wenzel 2008). The average hunter from the Clyde River community had a combined income from sealskins and polar bear pelts of $1,400 in 1972 th at rose to $2,500 by 1980 (Wenzel 2004b). During the 1980s, the sealskin market coll apsed, polar bear pelt prices fell, and a temporary embargo depressed narwhal ivory prices, dramatically affecting important sources of income for the Inuit and leavi ng many communities vulnerable with scarce resources (Wenzel 1991). During these critical economic circumstances, polar bear sport hunts began to emerge as sources of income for Inuit communities, such that by the end of the 1980s in Nunavut, sport hunts compri sed more than 10% of polar bear harvest
13 quotas (Wenzel 2005). The Canadian National Government and territorial governments worked to promote Arctic tourism, and specifically sport hunting, to aid economic development in Inuit communities (Wenzel 2008). Inuit hunters were trained and certified as guides, community-based sp ort hunt outfitters we re created, and the government facilitated the formation of rela tionships between Inuit communities and big game wholesalers located in southern Ca nada and the United States (Wenzel 2008; Waters et al. 2009). These changes and the increase in governme ntal support brought about greater economic return per polar bear tag allocated to spor t hunting rather than subsistence hunting (Wenzel 2008; 2011). One bear tag sold to a sport hunter is worth US$20,000 to US$60,000 depending on the commun ity, making sport hunting at least 10 times more profitable than selling hide s, which are worth around US$2,000. However, many communities debated the potential so ciocultural, spiritual, and economic ramifications for the sport hunt, leading to a slower acceptance of the overall activity. The Current Flexible Quota System in Nunavut The Nunavut Land Claims Agreement (NLCA) provides a co-management system that is used to determine the sustainable tota l allowable harvest (TAH) for each polar bear subpopulation (Table 1) using capture-markrecapture surveys, modeling, and Inuit observations (NTI 1993). This system inco rporates scie ntific knowledge and Inuit Quajimajatuqangit (IQ), which is cultural, political and spiritual knowledge combined with traditional ecologi cal knowledge (TEK) (Wenzel 2004a). TEK integrates observations of natural phenomena with loca l information about ecosystems obtained by the culture over time (Usher 2000). Inuit cultural, poli tical, and spiritual knowledge
14 includes customs, world view, language, life sk ills, perceptions, and expectations, all of which change over time making IQ a dynamic system of knowledge (Wenzel 2004a). The polar bear TAH for each community is mana ged using flexible-quotas, designed to account for expected fluctuations in harves t numbers and subpopulatio n sex-ratios, thus ensuring sustainable take (Dowsley and Wenzel 2008; Wenzel 2011). Through a credit system, a community is penalized if it over-har vests its total take-quota the prior year but benefits if under-harvesting had occurred. Communities can over-harvest by taking more bears than they were allotted or by taking t oo many females relative to males (Taylor et al. 2008a; 2008b). Polar bears must be harvested at a male to female ratio of 2:1, which modeling has established will maximize the sustainability of the take. To determine TAH levels, the Government of Nunavut (GN) Department of Environment biologists delineate borders and assess demography of each polar bear subpopulation every 15 years (Dowsley an d Wenzel 2008). The results of these assessments are reviewed by the Nunavut W ildlife Management Board (NWMB), which then presents a suggestion for the TAH to th e Nunavut Minister of Environment, who has the power to reject the initial suggestion if the available evidence does not adequately support it. If rejection occurs, the NWMB presents a second decision that the Minister may reject, accept, or modify (NTI 1993). Once an agreement has be en reached, the TAH for the subpopulation is distributed between the hunters and tra ppers organizations (HTOs) of the communities th at hunt within that subpopul ation (Dowsley and Wenzel 2008). HTOs are comprised of any interested adult and in most communities all adult hunters are HTO members (Dowsley 2010). A memorandum of understanding (MOU) is developed that describes a 15year management plan, incl uding target size of the
15 subpopulation, the TAH and how it was decided, other regulations se t by the government, and rules for local hunters. This MOU is si gned by the Minister of Environment, the HTO, and the regional wildlife organizati on (Dowsley and Wenzel 2008; Dowsley 2010). HTOs collectively allocate polar bear tags to subsistence or sport hunting based on the needs and desires of the community (Dowsley and Wenzel 2008; Dowsley 2010). Subsistence tags are distributed to commun ity hunters, often through a lottery system, while sport hunt tags may be retained by th e HTO, sold to community outfitters, or distributed to hunters through a lottery. A ll non-Inuit sport hunters must go through a community outfitter to hunt, in some places the HTO acts as the outfitter, others are private but still Inuit-owned outfitters. If th e HTO is the outfitter, it may hold sport hunt tags and sell them directly to the sport hunt er, or it may give them to Inuit hunters who can then sell them to the sport hunter. If th ere are private outfitters, they may buy sport hunt tags from the HTO or from individual tag-holding hunters. The sport hunt system and distribution of sport hunt tags varies by community and has important implications for which community members are able to par ticipate in and benef it from the sport hunt (Dowsley 2010). A number of regulations apply to polar bear sport hunts; most importantly, they must be guided by Inuit hunters and conducte d by dogsled (Lentfer 1974). Subsistence hunters, on the other hand, can use snowmob iles and motor boats, but no polar bear hunting can be done by helicopter. Sport hunts cannot take female bears making a den, denning, or accompanied by cubs. Previously, hunting by seasons minimized encounters with these females but seasonal restrictions have been rescinded as current quota and sexratio regulations are thought be adequate protection (Freeman and Wenzel 2006;
16 Dowsley and Wenzel 2008). Most sport huntin g happens in late fa ll or early spring, depending on the subpopulation involved, with each hunt lasting approximately two weeks and often spanning 300 to 500 km (F oote and Wenzel 2009). Killing a polar bear is not guaranteed; meaning sport hunters are paying for an Inuit hunting experience and may not necessarily procure a trophy. Should a sport hunt be unsuccessful, the tag cannot be used for another sport hunter or reallocated to subsistence hunting but it can be used to offset a bear killed by the community for the protection of people or property (Dowsley 2010). THE POLAR BEAR SPORT HUNT AND CONSERVATION The World Wildlife Fund (WWF) considers hunting to be an important aspect of Arctic conservation as it maintains local valuation of resources and can prevent impending threats of increased industrial ization (Ewins 2005). The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) also regards trophy hunting as an approach fo r integrating local people with wildlife conservation to prom ote local empowerment (Wollscheid 2005). However, hunting is inherently an exploi tative activity and as such, effective conservation-based management should cons ider adaptive strategies, evolutionary selection pressures, shortand long-term sp ecies viability, size a nd quality of species habitat, and economic and social ince ntives for local people (Wall 2005). Adaptive Management The goal of adaptive management is l ong-term sustainability of conservationbased resource use through refining and imp roving management in response to
17 immediate issues and informati on (Walter 1986; Armitage et al. 2009). It is a system that presumes ecosystem fluctuations and accounts fo r the inability to fu lly understa nd human impacts by optimizing resource use throug h quantifying (or at least qualifying) uncertainty and monitoring the resource syst em; thus, constant research and data collection is necessary (one example of adaptive management is sport hunting of mallard ducks [ Anas platyrhynchos ] in the US; Nichols et al. 20 07). In the context of sport hunting, it must include mechanisms to monito r and adjust harvest levels and the ability to stop hunting should assessment or popu lation recovery be ne cessary (Wall 2005). Adaptive management is most successfully implemented in coordination with local resource-using populations; therefore, the Nuna vut polar bear sport hunt is based on the principles of adaptive co-management such that science and IQ are both employed to ensure a sustainable harvest (Dowsley and We nzel 2008). However, there are still aspects of the Nunavut system that should be streng thened to further legitimize the conservation basis of the polar bear sport hunt. The adap tive capacity of flexible-quotas ensures harvests remain within established sust ainable limits over multiple years and many communities are thought to consistently take fe wer bears than they are allocated (Figure 1) (Dowsley and Wenzel 2008). Uncertainty is more prev alent and recognized in polar bear management than many other species because characteristics of polar bears, their population di stribution, and conditions in the Ar ctic make research difficult (Obbard et al 2010). Western science and IQ cannot determine subpopulation numbers with absolute accuracy and their results may disagree, therefore these estimates te nd to be rough (Dowsley and Wenzel 2008; Wong 2010). To address these discrepancies, some communities (e.g. Baffin Bay and
18 Western Hudson Bay) divide the 15-year ma nagement plan into two phases (Dowsley and Wenzel 2008). For the first seven years, the TAH are set at conservative levels determined by polar bear biologists, then ad justed for the next seven years based on IQ. Should a subpopulation drop below 90% of its target number, a harvest moratorium can be imposed to allow recovery, but the government may just lower the TAH instead because it has been reluctant to stop harv esting without community support (Dowsley and Wenzel 2008). The NLCA considers adaptive co-manag ement as foundational to polar bear management in Nunavut, but biologists and Inuit often criticize and claim that the government and wildlife boards do not consider their perspective as important (Freeman and Foote 2009). To ensure a sustainable harv est, IQ and western science may need to increase their dialogue and be more open to compromise, therefore increasing the ability of the adaptive co-management program to ad equately respond to the needs of both the polar bear and the Inuit. Contribution to Shortand L ong-Term Species Viability For the polar bear sport hunt to claim a role in polar bear conservation, it must account for shortand long-term species viability, which is often assessed through population size and demography because they are important indicators of population health and expected reproductive su ccess (Wall 2005). Demography generally incorporates population age-sex structure, growth rate, dens ity, distribution, and behavior of individuals. Sustainable management of the Nunavut harvest is based primarily on estimated demographic parameters, but th ese might be inadequate at predicting
19 subpopulation persistence because of research limitations and specific characteristics and ecology of polar bears (Molnr 2009; Obbard et al. 2009). The current management system of flex ible-quotas and male-biased harvesting may be sustainable in the short-term, but accurate data is deficient for many subpopulations, preventing a definitive consen sus (Wenzel 2005; Obbard et al. 2009). Harvesting males at twice the rate of females minimizes immediate effects on reproductive potential of subpopulations as on e male can mate with multiple females each season if provided the opportunity (Richards on et al. 2011). In the short term, taking larger males out of the population may al so benefit reproduction by reducing male cannibalization of cubs and potentially harm ing their mothers in the process (Derocher and Wiig 1999; Freeman and Foote 2009). Howeve r, stressors such as climate change and pollution provide uncertainty for the longterm viability of pol ar bear subpopulations, as does selective male-biased harvests (M olnr 2009). Male-female interactions may decline in frequency if enough males are removed from a subpopulation causing mating to drop. This sex-selective harvesting could accelerate the Allee e ffect, i.e., a direct association between reduced population grow th and reduced reproductive success or survival. Polar bears are particularly vulnerabl e to this effect because of their wide lowdensity dispersal and so litary nature (Figure 2) (Molnr et al. 2008). Models suggest that harvest should remain sustainable as long as it is not further skewed towards males (Taylor et al. 2008b). However, operational se x-ratios of subpopulations are coupled with density, such that decreases in density must be compensated with more males to maintain similar reproduction rates (Molnr et al. 2008). Communities may over-harvest males in
20 some years suggesting it is important to clos ely monitor the harvest sex-ratio to prevent an Allee effect. Sport hunting has potential evolutio nary consequences for polar bear subpopulations through human-induced unnatura l selection (Coltm an et al. 2003; Allendorf and Hard 2009). The largest polar bears make the best trophies, but sizeselective hunting pressures allow smaller bears to survive and reproduce more frequently than larger bears leading to smaller polar bear s in the future (Figure 3) (Coltman et al. 2003; Molnr 2009). Smaller bears may have lowe r fitness, be less successful hunters, be more susceptible to food scarcity, have sma ller litters, and maintain lower energy stores to nurse their cubs (see Conover and Munch 2002). These dangers could be partially mitigated by encouraging sport hunt guides to avoid targeting the largest bears or by using the quota system to require smaller bears also be a part of the take, thus easing this type of selective pressure. Guides may be he sitant to hunt smaller bears and potentially reduce the experience for the sport hunter but interviews have shown that many sport hunters are interested in th e overall experience (i.e., tr aveling and hunting by dogsled, surviving in the Arctic environment, and intera cting with Inuit culture) even if they do not obtain a trophy for th at hunt (Slavik 2009). Polar bears are highly vulne rable to trans-national atmospheric and oceanic dispersal of persistent organi c pollutants (POPs), such as brominated flame retardants (BFR) (Muir et al. 2006), polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) and hexachlorobenzene (HCB), which are pesticides, solvents, pha rmaceuticals and other compounds used on an industrial scale (Amstrup 2003). Th e prevalence of these contam inants has increased with industrialization, degrading the Arctic ecosystem and threaten ing polar bear health. POPs
21 bioaccumulate [i.e., the compound increases in concentration because the body cannot excrete or metabolize it] leading to bioma gnification [i.e., the compound becomes more concentrated as it moves up in trophic levels], which have great effects on apex predators (Norstrom et al. 1998). Polar bear tissues from across the Arctic have been found to contain POPs, but concentrations are higher in Russia and Svalbard than Canada. These contaminants are associated with depre ssed immunoglobulin (IgG) and thyroid hormone levels, which may reduce the function of multiple health systems, perhaps most importantly reducing immune system respons e (Skaare et. al. 2002; McKinney et al. 2011). Size and Quality of Habitat Industrial activities, such as hydrocarbon extraction a nd shipping, in the Arctic have the potential to degrade polar bear ha bitat and interfere with their movements, feeding, breeding, and denning, as well as incr ease human presence and the likelihood of negative human-bear interactions (Ams trup 2003). Sport hunting can provide an incentive to conserve polar bear habitat and prevent or minimize the expansion of industrial activities th at have the potential to cause extensive environmental harm (Freeman and Foote 2009). Trans-national pollu tion, industrial activities, and climate change all threaten the size and quality of polar bear habitat; despite this the polar bear has so far maintained most of its original range, unlike many extant large carnivores (Stirling 2011). Industrial activities are expect ed to increase as reduced sea ice opens shipping passages, increases off-shore hydr ocarbon exploration, and facilitates higher fishing yields throughout the year (A CIA 2005; Hovelsrud et al. 2008).
22 Contributions to Inuit Communities The polar bear sport hunt provides di rect economic benefits to Nunavut communities and reaffirms Inuit cultural identities. Combined these create a strong incentive for the Inuit to s upport polar bear conservation. Qu antifying these benefits can be difficult because of complex connections between cultural, economic, and social aspects of Inuit life, but the importance of the sport hunt to contemporary Inuit subsistence has been repetitively demonstr ated (Condon et al. 1995; Wenzel and Dowsley 2005; Wenzel 2008; Dowsley 2010). Sport hunters plan and purchase trips thr ough wholesalers, who retain 40% to 60% of the ticket price [i.e., $20,000 to $60,00 0] depending on the success of the host community (Freeman and Wenzel 2006; Foote and Wenzel 2009). This revenue is distributed to guides, assist ants, and other workers by th e community outfitter(s), in which guides receive $4,000 to $10,000 per hunt (plus any gratuities, supplies, or equipment), and assistants $4,000 per hunt, though values paid vary substantially by community (Wenzel 2005). The annual incomes of sport hunt guides and assistants are usually equal to or greater than what they could earn working hour ly-wage jobs in the community. However, employment is scarce in Nunavut and guides often do not have job or language skills needed for other types of work (Freeman and Wenzel 2006; Foote and Wenzel 2009). Within the Inuit mixed-economy (Figure 4), cash enables the procurement of country food by way of money from sport hunts used to purchase and maintain new equipment [e.g., snowmobiles] for subsis tence activities (Wenzel 1991; 2005; see
23 Appendix B for explanation of the developm ent and functioning of the Inuit mixedeconomy). Between 1996 and 2007, guides in the Clyde River community were able to procure substantially more food through subs istence harvesting, fina ncially supported by sport hunts, than if their in come was instead used to buy store food (Wenzel 2009). Guides represented 1% of the adult populati on but provided the community 12% of the ringed seal and caribou and 65% of narwhal harvests (Wenzel 2009). The sport hunt is seasonal which allows time for subsisten ce harvesting providing food for the entire community because the Inuit system shares resources reinforcing social ties (Wenzel 2000). Hunters give harvested food to senior family members who distribute it to the households of their offspring, a process that reaffirms important kin bonds. The advantages of sport hunt employment can provide incentives for younger Inuit generations to learn traditional survival and hunting skills (Condon et al. 1995; Stern 2010). The increasing popularity of sport hunts has prompted guide training courses that teach land skills potentially giving the trainees a greater cultural pride (Tyrrell 2009). A sport hunt provides 10-20 times the economic return compared to just selling the hide of a subsistence harvested bear (compare a hide worth US$2,000 to a sport hunt worth US$20,000 to US$60,000), therefore communities should maximize the number of sport hunts they host (Foote and Wenzel 2009). Nonetheless, 70% to 80% of tags are allocated to subsistence or defense kill s. Dowsley (2010) performed a quantitative economic analysis in multiple Nunavut commun ities, focusing on the percentage of tags allocated to sport hunting versus subsistence hunting and how this combination benefitted each community. She found that in each comm unity, tags were allocated so that substantial income was earned through spor t hunts but the maximum number of hunters
24 received subsistence tags to satisfy their cu ltural needs. Thus, the monetary potential of the sport hunt was recognized in each community and the sport hunt was only used to ensure the continuation of s ubsistence hunting (Dowsley 2010; also suggested by Wenzel 2008). Life in the Arctic requires an adeq uate flow of income to support modern subsistence harvesting and the polar bear s port hunt provides Nunavut with this revenue and incentives for Inuit complia nce with conservation-oriented quotas and other harvest regulations.
25 REFERENCES ACIA 2005 Arctic Climate Impact Assessmen t. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Allendorf F & Hard J 2009 Human-induced evolution caused by unnatural selection through harvest of wild animals. Proc Natl Acad Sci 106(1), 9987-9994. Amstrup S 2003 Polar bear: Ursus maritimus in: Wild mammals of North America: Biology, management, and conservation Feldhamer GA, Thompson BC & Chapman JA, eds. 2nd ed. Balitimore, MD: John Hopki ns University Press, 587-616. Armitage D, Plummer R, Berkes F, Arthur R, Charles A, Davidson-Hunt I, Diduck A, Doubleday N, Johnson D & Marschke M 2009 Ad aptive co-manage for social-ecological complexity. Front Ecol Environ 7(2), 95-102. Coltman D, ODonoghue P, Jorgenson J, Hogg J, Strobeck C & Festa-Bianchet M 2003 Undesirable evolutionary c onsequences of trophy hunting. Nature 426, 655-658. Condon R, Collings P & Wenzel G 1995 The best part of life: Subsistence hunting, ethnicity, and economic adaptati on among young adult Inuit males. Arctic 48(1), 31-46. Conover D & Munch S 2002 Sustaining fishing yi elds over evolutionary time scales. Science 297, 94-96. Derocher A & Wiig 1999 Infanticide and cannibalism of juvenile polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) in Svalbard. Arctic 52(3), 307-310. Dowsley M & Wenzel G 2008 The time of th e most bears: A co-management conflict in Nunavut. Arctic 61(2), 177-189. Dowsley M 2010 The value of a polar bear: Eval uating the role of a multiple-use resource in the Nunavut mixed economy. Arctic Anthropol 47(1), 39-56. Ewins P 2005 Conservation and hunting in nor thern regions: Community-based hunting as a conservation tool in: Conservation hunting: People and wildlife in Canadas North Freeman M, Hudson R & Foote L, ed s. Alberta, Canada: CCI Press. Foote L & Wenzel G 2009 Polar bear conservation hunting in Canada: Economics, culture, and unintende d consequences in: Inuit, Polar Bears, and Sustainable Use: Local, national, and international perspectives Freeman M & Foote L, eds. Alberta, Canada: CCI Press, 13-24. Freeman M & Foote L 2009 Introduction in: Inuit, polar bears, and sustainable use:
26 Local, national, and international perspectives Freeman M & Foote L, eds. Alberta, Canada: CCI Press, 1-12. Freeman M & Wenzel G 2006 The nature and significance of polar bear conservation hunting in the Canadian Arctic. Arctic 59(1), 21-30. GN (Government Nunavut) 2005 Polar bear total allowable harvest order. Nunavut Gazette 7(6), 82-84. GN (Government Nunavut) 2011 Polar bear total allowable harvest order, amendment. Nunavut Gazette 13(10), 100. Hovelsrud G, McKenna M & Huntington H 2 008 Marine mammal harvests and other interactions with humans. Ecol Appl 18(2), S135-S147. Lentfer 1974 The Agreement for the conservation of polar bears. Polar Rec 17(108), 327330. McKinney M, Letcher R, Aars J, Born E, Bran igan M, Dietz R, Evans T, Gabrielsen G, Muir D, Peacock E & Sonne C 2011 Regiona l contamination versus regional dietary differences: Understanding geographic va riation in bromiated and chlorinated contaminant levels in polar bears. Environ Sci Technol 45, 896-902. Molnr P, Derocher A, Lewis M & Taylor M 2008 Modeling the mating system of polar bears: A mechanistic appro ach to the Allee effect. Proc R Soc B 275, 217-226. Molnr P 2009 Modeling future impacts of climate change and harvest on the reproductive success of female polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ). Alberta, Canada: University of Alberta. Muir DC, Backus S, Derocher AE, Dietz R, Evans TJ, Gabrielsen GW, Nagy J, Norstrom RJ, Sonne C, Stirling I, Taylor M & Letcher RJ 2006 Brominated flame retardants in polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) from Alaska, the Canadian Arctic, east Greenland, and Svalbard. Environ Sci Technol 40, 449-455. Nichols J, Runge M, Johnson F & Williams B 2007 Adaptive harvest management of North American waterfowl populations: A brief history and future prospects. J Ornithol 148, S343-S349. Norstrom R, Belikov SE, Born E, Garner GW, Malone B, Olpinski S, Ramsay M, Schliebe S, Stirling I & Stishov M 1998 Chlorinated hydrocarbon contaminants in polar bears from eastern Russia, North America, Greenland, and Svalbard: Biomonitoring of Arctic pollution. Arch Environ Con Tox 35, 354-367. NTI 1993 Nunavut Land Claims Agreement (NCLA).
27 Obbard M, Thiemann G, Peacock E & DeBruyn T 2010 Polar bears. Proceedings of the 15th working meeting of the IUCN/SSC Pola r Bear Specialist Group June 29 July 3, 2009 Copenhagen, Denmark. Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge, UK: IUCN. Richardson E, Davis C, Stirling I, Derocher A & Lunn N 2010 Genetic assessment of the mating system of the polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) in Western Hudson Bay. 19th Biennial Conference on the Biology of Marine Mammal s November 27 December 2; Tampa, FL. Skaare J, Larsen, H, Lie E, Bernhoft A, Derocher A, Norstrom R, Ropstad E, Lunn N & Wiig O 2002 Ecological risk as sessment of persistent organic pollutants in the Arctic. Toxicology 181-182, 193-197 Slavik D 2009 The economics and client opinion s of polar bear conservation hunting in the Northwest Territories, Canada in: Inuit, Polar Bears, and Sustainable Use: Local, national, and international perspectives Freeman M & Foote L, eds. Alberta, Canada: CCI Press, 65-77. Stirling I 2011 Polar bears: The natural history of a threatened species Ontario, Canada: Fitzhenry & Whiteside. Stern P 2010 The daily life of the Inuit Santa Barbara, California: Greenwood. Taylor M, Laake J, McLoughlin P, Cluf f D & Messier F 2008a Mark-recapture and stochastic population models for polar bears of the High Arctic. Arctic 61(2), 143-152. Taylor M, McLoughlin P & Messier F Se x-selective harvesting of polar bears Ursus maritimus Wildl Biol 14(1), 52-60. Tyrrell M 2009 Western Hudson Bay polar bears: The Inuit perspectives in: Inuit, polar bears, and sustainable use: Local, na tional, and international perspectives Freeman M & Foote L, eds. Alberta, Canada: CCI Press, 95-110. Usher P 2000 Traditional ecological knowledge in environmental assessment and management. Arctic 53(2), 183-193. Wall 2005 A framework proposal for cons ervation-hunting best practices in: Conservation hunting: People and wildlife in Canadas north Freeman, M; Hudson R & Foote L, eds. Alberta, Canada: CCI Press. Walters C 1986 Adaptive management of renewable resources New York, NY: McGraw Hill. Waters M, Rose N & Todd P 2009 The econo mics of polar bear trophy hunting in Canada. Joint publication of the Internati onal Fund for Animal Welfare and Humane Society International.
28 Wenzel G 1991 Animal rights, human rights, ecology, economy and ideology in the Canadian Arctic Toronto, Canada: University of Toronto Press. Wenzel G 2000 Sharing, money, and modern I nuit subsistence: Obligation and reciprocity at Clyde River, Nunavut in: The social economy of sharin g: Resource allocation and modern hunter-gatherers Wenzel G, Hovelsrud-Broda G & Kishigami N, eds. Osaka, Japan: National Museum of Ethnology, 61. Wenzel G 2004a From TEK to IQ: Inuit qa ujimajatuqangit and Inuit cultural ecology. Arctic Anthropol 41(2), 238-250. Wenzel G 2004b Polar bears as a resource: An overview. The 3rd Northern Research Forum Open Meeting September 15-18 Yellowknife and Rae Edzo, Canada. Wenzel G 2005 Nunavut Inuit and the polar b ear: The cultural politic s of the sport hunt in: Senri Ethnological Studies 67 Indigenous use and manageme nt of marine resources Kishigami N & Savelle J, eds. Osaka, Ja pan: National Museum of Ethnology, 363-388. Wenzel G 2008 Sometimes hunting can seem like busin ess: Polar bear sport hunting in Nunavut Alberta, Canada: CCI Press. Wenzel 2009 Subsistence and conserva tion hunting: A Nunavut case study in: Inuit, polar bears, and sustainable use: Local, na tional, and international perspectives. Freeman M & Foote L, eds. Alberta, Canada: CCI Press, 51-64. Wenzel G 2011 Polar bear management, spor t hunting, and Inuit s ubsistence at Clyde River, Nunavut. Mar Policy 35, 457-465. Wenzel G & Dowsley M 2005 Economic and cultu ral aspects of polar bear sport hunting in Nunavut, Canada in: Conservation hunting: People and wildlife in Canadas north Freeman M, Hudson R & Foote L, eds. Alberta, Canada: CCI Press, 37-45. What-when-how.com [Internet] 2012 Population dynamics (marine mammals) [accessed May 2012] http://what-when-how.com/mar ine-mammals/population-dynamics-marinemammals/ Wollscheid K 2005 Multilateral environmental agreements and the future of hunting in: Conservation hunting: People and wildlife in Canadas north. Freeman M, Hudson R & Foote L, eds. Alberta, Canada: CCI Press. Wong P 2010 Reliability, accuracy and tracking techniques of Inuit hunters in estimating polar bear characteristics. Onta rio Canada: Queens University.
29 Table 1. Estimated polar bear abundances and TAHs by subpopulation1. Subpopulation Estimated Abundance Year of Last Estimate NU TAH Year TAH was Set Subpopulation Also Harvested By: Baffin Bay (BB) 1546 2004 105 2005 Greenland (Kalaallit) Davis Strait (DS) 2251 2006 52 2007 Greenland (Kalaallit) & Quebec (Cree/Inuit?) Foxe Basin (FB) 2300 2004 106 2005 Quebec (Cree/Inuit?) Gulf of Boothia (GB) 1528 2000 74 2005 None Kane Basin (KB) 164 1998 5 2005 Greenland (Kalaallit) Lancaster Sound (LS) 2541 1998 85 2005 None M'Clintock Channel (MC) 284 2000 3 2005 None Northern Beaufort Sea (NB) 1200 2006 6 2005 None Norwegian Bay (NW) 190 1998 4 2005 None Southern Hudson Bay (SH) 681 2005 60 2011 Ontario (Cree) & Quebec (Cree/Inuit?) Viscount Melville Sound (VM) 215 1996 7 2007 None Western Hudson Bay (WH) 935 2005 21 2011 Manitoba (Cree) 1Adapted from GN (2005; 2011)
30 Figure 1. Total Nunavut quota versus total legal harvest. The number of bears legally taken is continuously less than the actual assigned quota (adapted from Dowsley and Wenzel 2008).
31 Figure 2. An illustration of the Allee effect. When population level or density falls below a certain threshold, growth rate can sharply decrease because there is no longer enough mating interactions to ma intain previous reproductive levels (taken from what-when-how.com 2012).
32 Figure 3. Evolutionary effects of hu man harvest on population dynamics. The targeting of large bears by trophy hunters creates a selec tive pressure against large size and may lead to smaller bears, on aver age, in the future. The red outline is the pathway directly related to polar bear harvest (adapt ed from Allendorf and Hard 2009).
33 Figure 4. Illustration of the Inuit mixed-economy. Money is used to buy equipment and supplies that enable subsis tence harvesting, which in turn provides some money through the sale of hides. The sport hunt is an ou tside source of cash that allows the continuation of subsistence harvesting.
34 CHAPTER 3 THE SPORT HUNT AND THE ESA BEFORE THE ENDANGERED SPECIES ACT Agreement for the Conservation of Polar Bears Polar bear sport hunting was firs t addressed internationally by the Agreement for the Conservation of Polar Bears (ACPB). In 1965, the first scientific meeting on the polar bear, with delegations from United States, Canada, Denmark (for Greenland), Russia, and Norway (hereafter referred to as the polar bear nati ons), was prompted by concern of over-harvest and lack of scientific kn owledge (Larsen and Stirling 2009). This meeting led to the creation of the IUCN PB SG, which drafted the ACPB, in which polar bear nations created a shared system of ma nagement prioritizing polar bear conservation and sustainable use (Wenzel 2004b). In 1976, Canada, Norway, and the Soviet Union signed the ACPB followed the next year by Denmark and the United States. The ACPB remained in force for five years, at which time it was reassessed by the member nations, agreed to continue, and has since remained in force since it was signed (Larsen and Stirling 2009). Concerns about harvest issue brought a bout the ACPB and accordingly it focused on limiting take, which was defi ned as hunting, capturing, or otherwise killing a polar bear (Lentfer 1974). Exceptions were made for the collection of scientific samples, other conservation purposes, protection and the pr evention of habitat disturbance, and traditional subsistence hunting by local peopl es. In ACPB, a quota system was created to
35 regulate indigenous hunting. Initially, historic al data was used to establish maximum harvest levels with the expectation that futu re scientific study would monitor and reassess population size and viability (Wenzel 2004b). The ACPB recognizes indigenous Arctic people and the polar bear nations as partne rs in polar bear conservation and TEK is supposed to be given the same relevance and importance as western science (Larsen and Stirling 2009). Under the ACPB, indigenous people are allowed to continue their historical subsistence harvest, but only Canadian Inuit are allowed to run for-profit polar bear sport hunts as a part of their quota (Lentfer 1974). The Canadian Government requested this provision as an attempt to r ecognize cultural and socioeconomic needs of the Inuit (Wenzel 2004b). The Marine Mammal Protection Act In the 1960s and early 1970s, there were concerns in the United States (US) about decline in marine mammal species and over-harvest, which led to the MMPA (Wenzel 1991). This law was enacted in 1972, banned polar bear trophy hunting for all subpopulations in the US, and pr ohibited the importation into th e United States all raw or processed materials made from marine mammals (Larsen and Stirling 2009). Hunters from around the world began traveling to Canada when it became the only country with a legal polar bear sport hunt, as Russia had banned hunting before the US (Freeman and Wenzel 2006; Waters et al. 2009). After the MMPA became effective, some US hunters still participated in the Canadian polar bear sport hunt paying for the experience of tracking and killing a bear, though they coul d not return with th e trophy (Wenzel 2008; Waters et al. 2009).
36 In 1994, the MMPA was amended to allow th e importation of polar bear trophies from Canada into the United States under ce rtain restrictions and by permit (Lunn et al. 2002). Most importantly, trophies could be impo rted into the US only from those polar bear subpopulations that were approved, meaning USFWS determined that they had adequate and stable numbers based on legal and biological assessments. For a subpopulation to be approved, ( i ) it had to have a monitored and enforced sport hunting program according to ACPB, ( ii ) the quotas had to be base d on scientifically-sound data ensuring sustainability, ( iii ) the export and import had to be admissible under CITES, and ( iv ) the transaction could not be deemed likely to contribute to illegal trade in polar bear parts. If a region or community satisfied these regulations but their subpopulation was shared with a region or community that did not, importation was not permitted from either region or community (Wenzel 2008). By 1997, seven subpopulations were approved for importation, but the others were deferred either pending scientific data or because no scientifically-based quota system was in place, e.g., the subpopulation shared with Greenland (Wenzel 2008; Waters et al. 2009). These changes to the MMPA created a greater demand for polar bear sport hunt s because US hunters co uld now bring home their trophies. THE ESA LISTING Goals and Process of Listing the Polar Bear In 2005, the Center for Biological Di versity (CBD) submitted a petition to USFWS requesting they list under ESA the polar bear as threaten ed and its critical habitat be designated as such, based on implications from projected sea ice decline caused by
37 climate change (Buck et al. 2009). Natu ral Resources Defense Council (NRDC) and Greenpeace supported the CBD petition, promp ting USFWS to begin a formal status review of the polar bear. As an ice-obligate marine mammal, the polar bear is widely considered to be vulnerable to sea ice loss (Laidre et al. 2008), a lthough the extent and severity of its short and long-term vulnera bility remain not fully understood and under debate (Derocher et al. 2004; Buck et al. 2009). In January 2007, USFWS agreed to list the polar bear as threatened following a 12-month review incorporating scientific a nd commercial data (B uck et al. 2009). The US Secretary of the Interior officially designates a species as endangered or threatened under ESA, based on habitat destruction, over-uti lization, disease or predation, inadequacy of other regulatory mechanisms, and other natural or manmade factors (Ruhl 2010). ESA defi nes an endangered specie s as one, in danger of extinction throughout all or a significant portion of its rang e, whereas a threatened species is, likely to become endangered in the foreseeable future throughout all or a significant portion of its range (USFWS 2011). The decisi on to list must include collection of relevant information and publ ic participation and it cannot consider economic factors; thus, a listing under ESA repr esents the best available scientific data regarding species health a nd prospects for survival. On May 15, 2008, The US Secretary of the Interior and USFWS officially listed the polar bear as threatened because of the potential loss of sea ice habitat from warming air temperatures (Federal Re gister 2008). USGS co mmissioned reports considered loss of sea ice and warming of Ar ctic temperatures valid and attempted to forecast future polar bear population health (ex. Amstrup et al. 2007; Figure 1). In 2010,
38 critical habitat for the polar bear was de signated, when the polar bear was declared threatened throughout its range (Federal Regi ster 2010). These decisions were carried out despite letters and petitions by multiple Inuit organizations that objected to the listing and requested IQ be included in polar bear population health analysis (ITK and ICC 2008; NTI 2008). The Inuit clarified their concer ns over global climate change and their commitment to sustainable polar bear manage ment, but asked the US law consider their livelihood needs. Results of the Listing There were a number of protective meas ures from listing the polar bear as 'threatened'; primarily that any Federal activ ities (meaning anything authorized, carried out, or funded by the Federal US government) that may directly or indirectly affect polar bears or their habitat must be deliberated to en sure that they will not jeopardize polar bear survival (Federal Register 2008) It was prohibited to take (defined as: to harass, harm [including significant habitat modification or degradation], pursue, hunt, shoot, wound, kill, trap, capture, collect, or attempt to engage in any such conduct), import or export polar bears. An action plan was devel oped, and continues to be updated, which incorporates programs to promote and ensu re bear conservation during oil and gas exploration, tourism, and within indi genous Alaskan communities (USFWS 2009). US governmental biologists and various nongovernmental organizations, e.g., animal rights, conservation, and environmenta l, that supported the ESA listing had most likely intended for polar bears to bring sym bolism and public appeal to efforts to reduce global climate change and Arctic oil and gas development (Buck et al. 2009; Morath
39 2008). The broad ESA definition of take wo uld provide an avenue to regulate US greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions because they contribute to the modification and degradation of polar bear ha bitat (Morath 2008). However, as the polar bear was listed threatened, instead of endangered, Secret ary of the Interior, Dirk Kempthorne, was permitted to create special rules associated with the listing and blocked any attempt to regulate GHG emissions with ESA. Instead, he claimed ESA was not intended to directly address climate change (Feder al Register 2008). If ESA ha d been used to create GHG regulations, these would have been managed by the USFWS, which does not have the capacity for such an extensive endeavor (Kuhn 2010). Additionally, these regulations would have only addressed US GHG emissions whereas global climate change demands a much more international approach. Thus, in regards to the original purpose of the polar bear petition, the ESA listing is unable to affect the primary threat to polar bear survival, i.e. loss of sea ice and warming temper atures from climate change (Kuhn 2010).
40 REFERENCES Amstrup S, Marcot B & Douglas D 2007 Forecasti ng the range-wide status of polar bears at selected times in the 21st century. USGS Admi nistrative Report. Buck E, Corn M & Alexander K 2009 Polar be ars: Listing under the endangered species act. Congressional Research Se rvice Report for Congress. Derocher A, Lunn N & Stirling I 2004 Polar bears in a warming climate. Integr Comp Biol 44, 163-176. Freeman M & Wenzel G 2006 The nature and significance of polar bear conservation hunting in the Canadian Arctic. Arctic 59(1), 21-30. Fuller H [Internet] 2008 Black oil, white b ears, and the color of money [published February 7, 2008; accessed May 10, 2012] http://www.zdnet.com/blog/green/black-oilwhite-bears-and-the-color-of-money/781 ITK & ICC 2008 Response to the proposal to list polar bear under the US endangered species act. April 4. Kuhn M 2010 Climate change and the polar bear : Is the endangered species act up to the task? Alaska Law Review 27(1), 125-150. Laidre K, Stirling I, Lowry L, Wiig Heide-Jorgensen M & Ferguson S 2008 Quantifying the sensitivity of Arctic marine mammals to climate-induced habitat change. Ecol Appl 18(2), S97-S125. Larsen T & Stirling I 2009 The agreement on th e conservation of polar bears its history and future. Norsk Polarinstitutt Report 127, Tromso, Norway. Lentfer 1974 The Agreement for the conservation of polar bears. Polar Rec 17(108), 327330. Lunn N, Schliebe S & Born E 2021 Po lar bears. Proceedings of the 13th working meeting of the IUCN/SSC Polar Bear Specialist Group June 23-28, 2001 Nuuk, Greenland. Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge, UK: IUCN Morath S 2008 The endangered species act: A new avenue for climate change litigation? Public Land & Resources Law Review 29, 23-40. NTI 2008 Response to the US Fish and Wildlife Service proposed rule to list the polar bear as 'threatened' throughout its range. October 22. Ruhl J 2010 Listing endangered and threatened species in: Endangered species act: Law, policy, and perspectives Baur D & Irvin R, eds. 2nd ed. Chicago, Illinois: American Bar
41 Association, 17-39. USFWS Endangered and threatened wildlife a nd plants; Determination of threatened status for the polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) throughout its range: final rule. Federal Register 2008 73(95), 28212-28303. USFWS Endangered and threatened wildlife an d plants; Designation of critical habitat for the polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) in the United States. Fe deral Register 2010 75(234), 76086-76137. USFWS 2009 Spotlight species action plan: Polar Bear. USFWS 2011 Listing a species as threatened or endangered. Waters M, Rose N & Todd P 2009 The econo mics of polar bear trophy hunting in Canada. Joint publication of the Internati onal Fund for Animal Welfare and Humane Society International. Wenzel G 1991 Animal rights, human rights, ecology, economy and ideology in the Canadian Arctic Toronto, Canada: University of Toronto Press. Wenzel G 2004b Polar bears as a resource: An overview. The 3rd Northern Research Forum Open Meeting September 15-18 Yellowknife and Rae Edzo, Canada. Wenzel G 2008 Sometimes hunting can seem like busin ess: Polar bear sport hunting in Nunavut Alberta, Canada: CCI Press.
42 Figure 1. USGS predictions of polar bear survival by subpopulation. This data was one aspect of the scientific review conducted for the ESA listing of the polar bear and was criticized by IUCN an d TRAFFIC (taken from Fuller 2008).
43 CHAPTER 4 CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE ARCTIC This chapter explores climate change in the Arctic and the implications for the polar bear and thus, the Inuit. In particular, concerns ov er potential climate change impacts on polar bears instigated the ESA lis ting and therefore must be understood in the context of the polar bear sport hunt. Appendi x A explains basic bi ology of polar bears and can be referenced to understand more fully how the following changes will impact the polar bear. Climate change is about regional and global changes to temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind, precipitation, atmospheric particle count, and other meteorological factors (Gautier and Fellous 2008). Increased air and ocean surface temperatures, rising sea levels, ocean acidif ication, and decreased spatial and temporal ice and snow cover are suggested to be caused by climate change. El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena and increasing va riability and intensit y of tropical storms may also be associated with climate change (Collins et al. 2007; Gautier and Fellous 2008). Appendix C provides a discussion on mech anisms and impacts of climate change and why this phenomenon should be considered anthropogenic. ARCTIC CLIMATE CHANGE Arctic Amplification
44 Climate change in the Arctic is occurring more rapidly than other areas of the globe, because of a phenomenon called Arctic (or sometimes Polar) amplification (ACIA 2005). This occurs from a positive feedback l oop that perpetuates warming because as ice melts, more solar radiation is absorbed, me lting more ice, and so on (Curry and Shramm 1995; Serreze and Francis 2006). In the Arctic the reflective power, called albedo, of snow and ice cover prevents the absorption of some solar energy, keeping temperatures low even during the summer. Atmospheric GHG loading has increased Arctic nearsurface air temperatures, resulting in loss of snow and ice cover, especially during the summer, and setting off the amplifying feedback mechanism responsible for disproportionate Arctic warming (Figure 1). This is a simplification of the mechanism and not all processes are fully understood; however, measurements show Arctic amplification is occurring (McBean et al. 2005; IPCC 2007). Notably, Arctic air temp eratures have increased twice global averages, i.e., 1-2 C, since the mid 1900s with the past decade being the warmest on record. Full winter ice cover has declined at an estimated 2-3% per decade for at least 30 years. At the same time, end-of-summer multi-year ice cover has decreased much more rapidly, 9-10% per decade, which is equivalent to the loss of 100,000 km2 of sea ice coverage per year (Figure 2) (Stroeve et al. 2007; Comiso et al. 2008), causing predictions to estimate a to tal loss of late-summer sea ice by 2100 (Bo et al. 2009). There are multiple types of sea ice; pack ice and landfast ice are part of the full winter ice cover. Pack ice is unattached ice that freely floats in the Arctic Ocean, where landfast ice is attached to land on the coast. Sea ice can be seasonal, it freezes and melts with the seasons, or multi-year, such that the ice persists year-round and is part of late-summer sea
45 ice. Between 1980 and 2008, there was increased melting, and diminished average winter sea ice thickness from 3.64 to 1.89 m (Rothr ock et al. 1999; Kwok and Rothrock 2009). Sea ice reflects solar radiation, mediates o cean-atmosphere gas and heat exchange, and impacts salinity and sea level by freshwater di stribution. Thus, change s to Arctic sea ice extent and thickness will have dramatic effects at regiona l and global scales (IPCC 2007). For eight to ten months of the year, Arctic terrestrial areas ar e covered in snow. A reduction in duration and extent of snow cover is associated with climate change and part of the Arctic amplification effect (A CIA 2005). Snow cover has low thermal conductivity, increased surface albedo, and, prov ides insulation, which is important for permafrost and seasonal ground freezing. Across the Arctic, snow cover is regionally variable, but between 1966 and 2008, May-June average snow cover decreased 18%and snow melt occurred 3.43 days earlier each decade (Callaghan et al. 2011a). Snow albedo can be reduced dramatically by relatively small amounts of black carbon emissions that absorb solar radiation and contribute to faster snow melt. These emissions are expected to rise as ice melt increases Ar ctic shipping and mineral extr action activities (Macdonald et al. 2005). Reduced sea ice and warmer ocean waters may raise ground temperatures as far as 1500 km inland. Models show a decade of rapid ice loss would cause land temperatures to increase by 5 C in some Arctic regions (Lawrence et al. 2008), which would cause extensive Arctic permafrost thawing. Permafrost is soil that has remained below 0 C for two years or more. In the past 50 years, aver age permafrost temperatures have increased up to 2 C and seasonal thaw depths are con tinually increasing, such that the southern permafrost boundary has retreated in many area s (Christensen et al 2004; Callaghan et
46 al. 2011b). Additionally, large ice wedges em bedded within the permafrost take thousands of years to develop; these are melting and contributing to ground instability (Jorgenson et al. 2006). Permafrost is thought to contain between 1400 and 1850 gigatonnes of sequestered carbon, much in the form of methane, and nitrous oxide, which would be released with thawi ng of the permafrost (Callagha n et al. 2011b). Even a small percentage of trapped methane could cause dras tic and abrupt changes if released into the atmosphere. This would have serious c onsequences for Arctic amplification. Arctic Climate Change and the Biosphere The abiotic changes being observed and predicted to occur in the Arctic will have wide ranging biological and ecological effects that may be nefit some species but be detrimental to others (Post et al. 2009). Warming temperatures and a longer growing season have invited a northward shift in the ranges of many speci es, including increased shrub presence and an advancing tree-line (R oot et al. 2003; Hinzman et al. 2005). This will affect surface albedo, ultimately exacerbatin g Arctic amplification (Post et al. 2009). Animals are expanding their ranges northward affecting Arctic species, e.g., Arctic fox ( Alopex lagopus ) population declines are s uggested to be the resu lt of advancing red fox (Vulpes vulpes) individuals in some areas (Rodnikova et al. 2011). Additionally, migratory and hibernating species are adjus ting arrival and emergence dates because of changes in climate; however, conditions are not always favorab le upon arrival and interdependent species may not be in sync then (Inouye et al. 2000). Climate change driven alterations to species range and presen ce has already caused large-scale ecological regime shifts in some areas (Smol et al. 2005). Ecosystem modifications associated with
47 climate change may allow some species to shift their ranges, but many species are adapted to the current Arctic environment a nd will not be able to change (Post et al. 2009). ARCTIC CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE POLAR BEAR The most vulnerable Arctic species are ice-obligates, e.g., the polar bear, which are dependent on sea ice for traveling, hunting, resting, and mating (Laidre et al. 2008). Polar bears follow seasonal ice and its spatial and temporal variability have effects on individual bear fitness (Stir ling et al. 1999). Climate variability does not predict population dynamics as accurately as is of ten suggested (Krebs and Berteaux 2006) leaving many unanswered questions as to the ef fects of reduced ice on polar bear fitness and survival. Sea Ice Timing and Variability Spring and early summer are important se asons for polar bears because they must store sufficient fat to survive summer mont hs when there is no ice for foraging ringed seals and their pups (Amstrup 2003). Earlier br eak up of sea ice forces polar bears to move ashore or onto stable multi-year ice sooner, and as neither of these areas are very productive for seal biomass, this lengthens bears summer fasting pe riod (Derocher et al. 2004). Since 1979, spring ice break up in the Western Hudson and Baffin Bay regions has already shifted approximately 3 week s earlier (Stirling a nd Parkinson 2006). The concern is further shifts will cause the fasti ng period to be 4 months to 6 months longer and this would potentially lead to a 28-48% adult male mortality (Mol ar et al. 2010).
48 Ringed seals are not expected to be as vulne rable to climate change, but these seals are still ice-dependent so ice changes may cause more variable dispersal in some regions (Laidre et al. 2008). Prey distri bution variability means bears will have to travel farther distances to hunt, endure longer periods of fa sting, and experience gr eater intraspecific competition during winter foraging (Stirling and Parkinson 2006). Additionally, thinner and less abundant ice could increase distan ces bears have to swim, contributing to mortalities, especially if the bears are under-nourished (Monnett and Gleason 2006). The polar bear may adapt somewhat to other energy sources but ringed seals are the preferred prey species (D erocher et al. 2004; Wiig et al. 2008). Polar bears hunt other species as well (eg. bearded seals [ Erignathus barbatus ], beluga [ Delphinapterus leucas ], narwhal [ Monodon monoceros ], walrus [ Odobenus rosmarus ]) though many of these are less abundant and more difficult to catch than ringed seals. The si ze of ringed seals and their pups are more manageable, especially for female bears and their cubs (Amstrup 2003). Other pagophilic (ice-loving) Arctic mammals may shift distribution and abundance, suggesting there is not a guarantee that potentia l energy sources will remain available on the ice for polar bears to hunt (Laidre et al 2008). Though bears may catch birds and other terrestrial foods (Wiig et al. 2008), these are not sufficient to maintain the energetic needs of polar bear s (Derocher et al. 2004). Denning and Reproduction In some regions, sea ice loss and increasin g variability may cause an aggregation of polar bears and increase mating; however other areas these changes may further disperse already sparse bear populations and substantially redu ce mating success,
49 creating an Allee effect (Mol ar 2009). In Lancaster Sound, mating success is estimated at 99%, but if the efficiency of finding a mate decreases at twice the rate of the sea ice loss, success may drop to 91%. Should searchin g efficiency decrease 4 times faster than loss of sea ice, mating success is predicted to drop to 72% (Mol ar et al. 2010). As ice breaks up earlier and forms later in the year, females that are able to mate may need to adjust their denning strategy (Derocher et al. 2004). After the seasonal ice has melted, some reproductive females spend eight months on land while others spend four months on multi-year pack ice before spending four months denning. Females show denning site fidelity and those females that spend the summer on multi-year ice depend on freeze up in the fall to be able to reach their denning sites on land (Ramsay and Stirling 1988; Derocher et al. 2004). Variati on in sea ice loss makes the journey to the denning site longer and more di fficult in many areas, such as the Beaufort Sea. Females in poor condition from their difficult travel ma y construct inferior dens in sites less suitable (Derocher et al. 2004). Some female s den on multi-year pack ice rather than going ashore; however, this poses risks because of ice variability and unstable climate conditions during the long denning period. Winter ice drift can occur leaving the females and cubs to emerge in suboptimal areas (A mstrup and Gardner 1994 in Derocher et al. 2004). To avoid denning on pack ice, reproductive females may adopt a strategy similar to those in Western Hudson Bay (WHB) and spend the summer ashore, but this requires increasing their fasting time by four months (S tirling et al. 1999; Derocher et al. 2004). The earlier spring arrives a nd the ice starts breaking up, the earlier females and cubs are forced to leave their dens. This can have severe effects on cubs, especially if they are weaker or very young because cubs are born extremely altricial and require
50 denning time to build mass and strength (Deroche r et al. 2004). Changes of cub survival are even further decreased if prey is more difficult for the mother to find. During the summer in WHB, there has been an increase in the number of yearling cubs found alone either abandoned or their mothers have di ed (Stirling et al. 1999). In addition to cub mortalities, climate change may simply decr ease the number and size of litters a female has; if she is in poor body condition she ma y forgo reproduction. Models suggest if ice breaks up two months earlier, then 55-100% of females will be unable to reproduce energetically and those that are able to repr oduce will have decrease in litter sizes by 44100% (Mol ar et al. 2011). Evolutionary Biology: Pathogens and Hybridization The polar bear is most closel y related to the brown bear ( Ursus arctos ) and the two probably diverged approximately 600 kya (Hailer et al. 2012) but there appears to have been multiple ancient polar bear lin eages with the modern polar bear lineage emerging between 20 and 50 kya, though this is somewhat uncle ar (Edwards et al. 2011). This date of divergence is much earlier than mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) studies had suggested (Lindqvist et al. 2010) and indicates that the polar bear may not have undergone speciation and adaptation as rapidly as previously thought (Hailer et al. 2012). Past climate changes appear to have partiall y directed polar bear evolution by facilitating polar bear-brown bear hybridizations fo llowed by backcrossing that resulted in introgression, which is gene fl ow and fixation from one species to another (Edwards et al. 2011; Hailer et al. 2012).
51 Polar bear hybridization with brown b ears may have allowed both species to survive in the past (Hailer et al. 2012), but outbreeding de pression, the process of losing local adaptations, can have disadvantageous fi tness implications for the offspring (Kelly et al. 2010). The polar bear is especially vu lnerable to outbreedi ng depression because it occupies a highly specialized niche that re quires specific adaptations. For example, a hybrid bear at a zoo did not ha ve the same swimming ability as polar bears; this would substantially reduce survival for it or its o ffspring in the wild (Kelly et al. 2010). Recently, brown bears have expanded their ra nge so they are increasingly overlapping with polar bears (D oup et al. 2007). Historically, the Arctic has contained relatively low path ogen diversity. This corresponds to the 'latitudinal diversity grad ient,' which suggests that the abundance of pathogens increases as distance from the equa tor decreases (Guernier et al. 2004; Kutz et al. 2009). For example, polar bear fecal samp les from the high Arctic did not contain most pathogens and parasites th at are often present in other wild carnivores (Weber et al. submitted manuscript) and in Svalbard, polar bear fecals were low in bacterial diversity (Glad et al. 2010). Perhaps in accordance with the relative absence of Arctic pathogens over evolutionary time, the polar bear was found to have few alleles, low nucleotide diversity, and a low number of genotypes at two major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class II loci, DRB and DQB (Weber et al. submitted manuscript). The MHC is a large gene family found in all vertebrates th at is central to the function of the immune system and is the most variable region in the genome because MHC diversity contributes to pathogen/parasite immunity (Hughes a nd Yeager 1998). Low MHC diversity is not uncommon for northern species, suggesting that, unlike in warmer regions where
52 pathogens and parasites are prevalent; there is no strong selective pressure to maintain diversity (Murray et al. 1999; Dionne et al. 2007). In constr ast, polar bears that had higher levels of genetic diversity were in microsatellites (Paetkau et al. 1999); further corroborating the lower Arctic pathogen presence-lower MHC diversity hypothesis (Weber et al. submitted manuscript). Climate change is already contributing to an increased presence of pathogens and parasites in the Arctic (Kutz et al. 2004). W ithin the last decade, the prevalence of the parasite, Toxoplasma gondii in polar bears on Svalbard has approximately doubled, increasing to 45.6%. In the same period, T. gondii has appeared in 18.7% of ringed seals, where it was previously absent The movement of invertebrate filter feeders into warming northern waters is one possible vector that may have increased the presence of the pathogen (Jensen et al. 2010). Thus, the nor thward movement of species not only threatens Arctic species through competition a nd regime shifts, but also by transporting their pathogens and parasites. Polar bear ev olution may not be ad apted to adequately withstand this ecol ogical phenomenon. The Future of the Polar Bear Based on IPCC and other climate models some studies have warned of the potential for a severe reducti on in polar bear numbers, if not complete extinction by 2100 (Derocher et al. 2004; Amstrup et al. 2007). Howe ver, substantial regi onal variations in polar bear persistence are more probable th an extinction (Wiig et al. 2008). Polar bears survived periods of climate change in past evolutionary time but the pace of current change is extremely rapid and the end point may be beyond what the polar bear has
53 experienced or can withstand. During the hist ory of the polar bear, summer sea ice extent in some areas has been farthe r north than it is t oday but the Arctic Ocean has not been ice-free during the summer for at least a million years (Overpeck et al. 2005). By an ecological definition, the polar bear as a K-sele cted species should have greater plasticity for withstanding short-term environmen tal fluctuations. However, long-term environmental changes may not be met with quick genetic adaptations. Behavioral changes will be a much more important copi ng mechanism than evolution, at least within the next few polar bear generations (Der ocher et al. 2004; Wiig et al. 2008). CIMATE CHANGE AND THE INUIT The impacts of climate change will not be distributed equally and different groups of people will be affected by climate change in dissimilar ways (ACIA 2005). In Nunavut, the Inuit are vulnerable but potentially resilient to climate change, although the capacity varies by community and indi vidual (ACIA 2005; Ford et al. 2008). The degree of scientific concern over climate change is widely shared by the Inuit, who are actively monitoring change s to their environment and making their observations and situation globally known (K eith 2009). Their know ledge of Arctic weather and ecological functions has been ga thered and passed dow n over thousands of years, an aspect of IQ, which aids the Inui t to survive the change s occurring around them (Riedlinger and Berkes 2001). As each I nuit community exists within a local environmental context, the specific impacts and intensity of climate change and potential for adaptation and resilience should be highly localized (Ford et al. 2007).
54 Since the 1970's, winter sea ice has shorte ned, marked by both a later freeze and earlier break up (Keith 2009). Many Inuit have noted this change in sea ice and the warmer winter temperatures with each decade, bringing less stable and thinner sea ice, more variable and less predic table weather, str onger winds from different directions, increased rainfall, less snow cover, more co astal erosion, lower freshwater levels, and increasingly unhealthy wildlif e (Communities of Arctic Ba y, Kugaaruk, and Repulse Bay et al. 2005). These changes are having direct and indirect impacts on Inuit food security, health, infrastructure and the use of IQ (Furgal et al. 2008). As Arctic climate changes continue, IQ is becoming less adept at accura tely forecasting daily weather fluctuations leading to changes in how the Inuit inte ract with their e nvironment (GN 2003). Potential Effects on the Inuit Food has nutritional and sociocultural aspe cts and food security is defined as the constant availability of and access (physically and economically) to foods that are safe, nutritional, and satisfy cultura l needs and preferences. In Nunavut, the number of food insecure households is four times greater th an the Canadian average (Furgal et al. 2008) and food availability is decrea sing because climate change is impacting the persistence of some subsistence species (Lenart et al. 2002; Laidre et al. 2008). Reduced availability and accessibility to consumable land resource s has already created a growing need for imported food that is expected to increase in the future. Stor e bought food is prohibitively expensive for many families, as a standardized food basket costing more than twice in Nunavut than in most southern cities (A boriginal Affairs and Northern Development Canada 2010). The availability of food flown in to Nunavut also varies by community and
55 season because some settlements are more in accessible than others during either summer or winter. However, a longer shipping seas on and reduced shipping costs from climate change may provide a potential benefit (ACIA 2005). A greater reliance on food brought into the community may ultimately affect Inuit culture and social ties. Water security and quality is a concern in areas facing drastic changes and compounded to this issue is di sease (Furgal et al. 2008). Warm er temperatures encourage the spread of harmful pathogens through wate rways, by promoting greater algal and plant growth and ultimately reducing fresh wate r (ACIA 2005). Increasi ngly, Nunavummiut are concerned over degrading water quality as the Canadian northern areas are viewed as having poor water standards, l ack of testing, minimal require ments, and little public communication about water issues.
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62 Figure 1. Mechanism of Arctic amplification. Sea ice reflects the majority of solar radiation that hits it but open ocean absorbs the majority and causes an increase in ocean and near-surface air temperatures. Rising temper atures contribute to lo ss of sea ice, which in turn contributes to rising temperatures (taken from Arctic Climate Emergency 2012).
63 Figure 2. Reduced September sea ice extent. 2007 marked the lowest late summer sea ice cover on record (until 2011) and is shown compared to previous averages (taken from National Snow and Ice Center 2011).
64 CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSIONS To understand the effects of the 2008 lis ting of the polar bear as threatened under the US ESA, I explored if polar bear sport hunting in Nunavut contribu tes to polar bear conservation, the reasons fo r the listing, how climate change is affecting this issue, and the implications for the polar bear and the Inuit. The polar bear ESA listing was intended to address potential impacts of climate change but the amended special rules prevented any direct mitigation for US GHG emissions (Federal Register 2008). Importantly the ESA listing did not affect polar bear quotas in Nunavut so the number of bears ta ken each year is the same, regardless of whether US sport hunters are i nvolved (Freeman and Foote 2 009). The listing of the polar bear as 'threatened throughout its range' and prohibiting importation of trophies into the US had an undesired consequence. In effect, the US government surre ndered its ability to influence which subpopulations are hunted by US citizens as established by the 1994 US MMPA amendment. Therefore, as ESA is unable to regulate US GHG emissions, reverting to the pr evious MMPA system of subpopulat ion assessment may be more beneficial to polar bears by economically s upporting Inuit communities that are dedicated to their conservation. Fewer US hunters may par ticipate in the hunts but those that do, no longer will necessarily favor those commun ities with stable polar bear subpopulations and are using scientifically managed quota systems (Water s et al. 2009). The MMPA system gave a substantial economic incentive fo r Inuit communities to have scientifically established quotas and for subpopulations be ing 'approved' or 'non-approved' for trophy importation (Wenzel 2008). Trophy hunters from th e US often pay a considerably higher
65 dollar amount for the opportunity to obtain a special trophy (citation). For this reason, the energy and resources that the US put into the ESA listing and the CITES proposal could be more usefully applied to persuading other countries to a dopt a similar import regulation of trophies from approved s ubpopulations. Polar bear conservation would then remain an international endeavor with each country responsible for ensuring sport hunts by its citizens were from viable and sustainably managed polar bear subpopulations. US hunters often have large disposable incomes and are able to pay the highest prices for sport hunts, as demonstrat ed by US hunters paying US$200,000 to US$1 million for a Rocky Mountain bighorn sheep hunt (Marty 2002). The opportunity to hunt bighorn sheep is sold by an auction process an d allows the price for the hunt to increase based on demand. I propose this auction for an opportunity to sport hunt would be a more beneficial to the Inuit and th e polar bears. Overall less be ars would be taken, but polar bear sport hunts and their trophies are in hi gh demand, therefore, the Inuit would have more influx of income into their mixedeconomy (Slavik 2009). Sport hunting already provides at least ten times mo re money per bear than sell ing hides (1 sport hunt of US$40,000 = approximately 20 bears taken for US$2,000 per pelt), but an auction system would drastically increase the economic benefits to Inuit communities and could potentially allow fewer bears to be taken. Th is greater economic incentive could increase Inuit support for and compliance with conservation measures (Wenzel 2008). Amplified climate change does pose a substantial threat to the Arctic ecosystem, which may require, if possible, for the polar be ar to adapt or suffer extinction (Laidre et al. 2008) and the Inuit to change their way of life (Ford et al. 2006b; Furgal et al. 2008).
66 The sport hunt could increase Inuit adaptive capacity to climate change by providing an important source of income (Wenzel 2008) bu t the potential dangers for the polar bear cannot be disregarded. Where possible, e ach polar bear subpopulation needs to be assessed and considered independently, avoiding extrapolations from other subpopulations that are well studied but most likely experience different environmental factors (Taylor 2006). The most sustainable TAHs can then be established so that communities that hunt within st able subpopulations will not be penalized by declines in other subpopulations. Where climate change poses the greatest thre at to polar bear persistence, the government s hould enact a hunting moratorium making sure to clearly communicate and work with the impacted co mmunities in the continued assessment of the subpopulation. Importantly, citizens and corporations of the United States and other developed countries are the paramount propagators of gl obal climate change and the mitigation of their GHG emissions would have the greatest impact on the long-term survival of the polar bear. Sport hunting, on the other hand, provides a way to re duce the total polar bears killed by delivering at least ten times more income than what is earned selling hides. International polar bear management including the Canadian sport hunt, has been considered one of the most effective conservation programs for a large carnivore (Wenzel 2005; Taylor 2006; Larson and Stirling 2009) but in the early stages of the ESA listing, it appears the listing has done the opposite of its desired intent to strengthen polar bear conservation.
67 REFERENCES Ford J, Smit B, Wandel J & MacDonald J 2006b Vulnerability to climate change in Igloolik, Nunavut: What can we learn from the past and present. Polar Rec 42(221), 127138. Freeman M & Foote L 2009 Introduction in: Inuit, polar bears, and sustainable use: Local, national, and international perspectives Freeman M & Foote L, eds. Alberta, Canada: CCI Press, 1-12. Furgal C, Buell M, Chan L, Edge V, Martin D & Ogden N 2008 Health impacts of climate change in Canada's north in: Human health in a changi ng climate: A Canadian assessment of vulnerab ilities and adaptive capacity Sequin J, ed. Ottowa, Ontario: Health Canada, 303. Laidre K, Stirling I, Lowry L, Wiig Heide-Jorgensen M & Ferguson S 2008 Quantifying the sensitivity of Arctic marine mammals to climate-induced habitat change. Ecol Appl 18(2), S97-S125. Larsen T & Stirling I 2009 The agreement on th e conservation of polar bears its history and future. Norsk Polarinstitutt Report 127, Tromso, Norway. Marty S 2002 Sacrificial ram. Canadian Geographic November/December, 38-50. Slavik D 2009 The economics and client opinion s of polar bear conservation hunting in the Northwest Territories, Canada in: Inuit, Polar Bears, and Sustainable Use: Local, national, and international perspectives Freeman M & Foote L, eds. Alberta, Canada: CCI Press, 65-77. Taylor M 2006 RE: proposed up -listing of polar bear to t hreatened status under the US endangered species act. Department of Environment, Government of Nunavut. USFWS Endangered and threatened wildlife a nd plants; Determination of threatened status for the polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) throughout its range: final rule. Federal Register 2008 73(95), 28212-28303. Waters M, Rose N & Todd P 2009 The econo mics of polar bear trophy hunting in Canada. Joint publication of the Internati onal Fund for Animal Welfare and Humane Society International. Wenzel G 2005 Nunavut Inuit and the polar b ear: The cultural politic s of the sport hunt in: Senri Ethnological Studies 67 Indigenous use and management of marine resources Kishigami N & Savelle J, eds. Osaka, Ja pan: National Museum of Ethnology, 363-388. Wenzel G 2008 Sometimes hunting can seem like busin ess: Polar bear sport hunting in Nunavut Alberta, Canada: CCI Press.
68 APPENDIX A THE BIOLOGY OF THE POLAR BEAR General Description Polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) are the largest extant bear in the family Ursidae and the most sexually dimorphic of the ur sids (Stirling and Derocher 1990), as demonstrated by males weighing 300 to 800 kg and females 150 to 400 kg (DeMaster and Stirling 1981). Their large body size reduces surface area to volume ratio, thus aiding in thermoregulation when combined with s ubcutaneous fat, subdermal vascularization, and specialized fur (ritsla nd 1970; Stirling and Derocher 1990). Thermoregulation is particularly important during swimming and is facilitated by buoyant fat layers that reduce excess heat dissipation in the frigid Arctic Ocean (Thompson et al. 2008). Being strong swimmers, polar bears are able to sw im hundreds of kilometers at a time, using their large forelimbs as paddles and hind limbs as rudders and stabilizers. Polar bears have specialized adaptations to survive as an Arctic predator for example, their wide paws act as snow-shoes and enable them to cross thin ice. The white pelage provides camouflage to approach prey unnoticed and covers the entire body except for the tip of the nose (Figure 1) (Stirling 1974; Smith 1980). The skin underneath this dense coat appears to be brown, red, or pink as opposed to black commonly thought (pers. comm., J. Aars to D. Weber). There is a thick underfur layer that is overlayed by intermediate guard hairs (Stirling and Derocher 1990). The footpads ar e covered with fur, which provide bears traction on slippery ice, quiet stalking, and aids in preventing heat loss to the ice (Figure 1a) (Amstrup 2003). This contrasts from other bears, which lack
69 fur covering on the footpads (Figure 1b). Pola r bear claws are curved so they can climb up ice and maintain a strong grasp on prey (A mstrup 2003). This prey is seized and held with their enlarged carnassial s and reduced cheek teeth. Ringed Seal and Other Prey Polar bears depend primarily on marine pr oductivity for their energetic needs and their diet is dependent on ge ography and season, as well as distribution and density of different prey species (Amstrup 2003). Their ma in prey is the widely distributed ringed seal ( Phoca hispida ), but polar bears are also know n to feed on bearded seals ( Erignathus barbatus ), harp seals ( Phagophilus groenlandicus ), hooded seals ( Crystophora cristata ), harbor seals (Phoca vitulina), walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus ), beluga whales ( Delphinapterus leucas ), narwhals ( Monodon monoceros ), other animals, seabird eggs, human refuse, and sometimes vegetation (D eMaster and Stirling 1981; Stirling 2011). The ringed seal is ideal prey because it is nearly ubiquitous throughout the Arctic and is of a manageable size for most polar bears. Ringed seals and polar bears have coevolued for some time as many ringed seal be haviors appear to have adapted with the objective of minimizing polar bear predati on (Stirling 1977; Smith 1980). Ringed seals in the Arctic spend more time scanning their su rroundings and are more alert, compared to the Antarctic Weddell seal ( Leptonychotes weddelli ), which evolved without the presence of terrestrial predators. A dditionally, ringed seals use she ltered lairs for birthing, where Weddell seal pups are unprotected on the se a ice (Stirling 1974; 1977). Despite these adaptations, in some locations polar bears ma y take up to 44% of new-born ringed seals (Hammill and Smith 1991).
70 Polar bears hunt seals using three differe nt techniques: sti ll-hunting, stalking, or attacking birth lairs (Stir ling 1974; Smith 1980). Still-huntin g entails waiting motionless and silently next to a breathi ng hole or polyana, as seals will not surface is they can hear movements on the ice while underwater. Stalki ng involves the polar bear slowly moving towards a seal at the surface until it is 15 to 30 m away then quickly rushing the prey but is less common than still-hunting, probably becau se it is not as successful as (Stirling 1974). Finally, from 100 m upwind, polar bears can use their excellent sense of smell to detect ringed seal birth lair s that are subnivian, (i.e., unde rneath the snow pack). Polar bears smash into lairs and either catch the oc cupants before they can escape or proceed to still-hunt at the now-exposed breathing hole (Smith 1980). Polar bears will also catch belugas and narwhals caught in the ice when it moves (Stir ling 2011). Rarely are polar bears successful hun ting in the water. Hunting success varies gr eatly by season. During the summer, ringed seals molt and surface in dense groups and there are a gr eater number of natural holes in the ice, where a polar bear may wait without knowi ng if a seal will su rface (Stirling 1974; Harwood and Stirling 1992). In the winter and spring, ringed seals are usually dispersed alone or in small clumps and must maintain breathing holes, thus th ere is an increased likelihood most holes are in us e by a seal (Stirl ing 1974). Most hunting occurs during the winter and spring, because the bears have a greater chance of success using still-hunting and they are able to focus hunting efforts on smaller and nave young seals (<2 years). From a caloric standpoint, still-hunting is a dvantageous because bears expend less energy waiting then stalking (Stirling 1974). Polar bear s need to optimize their energetic return from hunting while minimizing their reduction of seal populations therefore, pups
71 younger than two years should be most fre quently preyed upon (Smith 1980). In the spring most food is procured by breaking into ringed se al birthing lairs, cubs and yearlings are not as experienced in this hunti ng technique, are lighter in weight then than their mothers, and thus hunt significa ntly less (Stirling and Latour 1978). High quantity of blubber in seals, provides polar bears the needed diet higher in fat than protein, i.e., approximately 4:1 ratio (Stirling 1974; Sm ith 1980). Although fat takes longer to process, it is digested mo re efficiently than protein (Best 1985). Accordingly, immediately after killing a se al a polar bear will consume the fat layer between skin and muscle, providing an excellen t caloric return because it contains more than half of the calories in the seal (Stirling 1974; Stirling and McEwan 1975). Sometimes polar bears eat the muscle, but ofte n the carcass is left for other bears or species to scavenge (Stirling 1974; Smith 1980) Fat catabolism releas es water to hydrate reducing the need to obtain liquid fresh water, which is a limited resource in the Arctic and energetically expensive to create from frozen snow or ice (Nelson et al. 1983). Annual reliability of ringed s eals, as a food source, is sp atially variable because of sea ice conditions, which greatly affects seal density and nutrient content (Best 1985; Harwood and Stirling 1992). To meet their ener getic needs, polar bears must maintain large ranges to provide enough seals while oppor tunistically feeding on other species. Normally, polar bears consume little or no vegetation but in Western Hudson Bay polar bears are forced ashore where feeding on terr estrial vegetation becomes important during the ice-free period, especia lly for young and females (Der ocher et al. 1993). Easily digestible but low in energetic return, vegetation can help buffer late summer and early fall weight loss but is not su fficient for growth (Best 19 85; Derocher et al. 1993).
72 Consumption of human refuse most frequently occurs when there is a food shortage or by juvenile and inexperienced subadult bears (Amstrup 2003). Human refuse may help polar bears maintain their weight in areas they are forced ashore for extended time periods (Lunn and Stirling 1985). Unfortunately, this has caused polar bears to be viewed as pests and created greater human-w ildlife conflicts in some Arctic communities (Amstrup 2003). Movement and Range Once thought to roam randomly, polar b ears are now known to move intentionally within fairly defined ranges (Amstrup 2003). Ra diotelemetry data has shown that polar bears have some degree of fide lity to certain co re regions but that range use changes seasonally and annually (Amstrup et al. 200 0; Ferguson et al. 2001). While the multiannual movements of an individual may be described as a home range, polar bears do not defend these areas as territories. Move ment rates can be high, sometimes greater than 50 km/day (Amstrup et al. 2000; Taylor et al. 2001), but also vary significantly depending on region and season (Ferguson et al. 2001; Amstrup 2003). Movement seems to be primarily influenced by prey availabil ity and predictability, which is affected by environmental variability, such as changes in the sea ice. Mating and Life History Strategy Polar bears mate throughout early spring and summer and pairs are frequently observed together between March and June In males, the te stes remain in the abdomen for most of the year, then drop into the scrotu m by the end of winter and reside there until
73 May, analogous to the period of peak estrus in female s (Ramsay and Dunbrack 1986). After coitus, the egg does not implant until autumn when the female enters a den (Amstrup 2003). Cubs are born early January, but remain in the den until March or April. Polar bear young are born blind, with hair, and weigh a mere 0.6 kg making them among the most underdeveloped of mammal offspr ing (Blix and Lentfer 1979; Ramsay and Dunbrack 1986). The fat and protein rich milk allows newborn cubs to grow rapidly, emerging from the den three months after birth weighting appr oximately 10-12 kg and within a year will be about ten times larger (Amstrup 2003). Litter size is normally two cubs, but one and three cub litters have been observed and length of stay with the mother is 2.3 years on average (Derocher and Stirlin g 1994). This coincides with the female reproductive cycle taking at least three years. Maternal age appears to affect litter size, such that until females reach 14 years there is an increase in average litter size, which then decreases until reproductive senescence. Specific weather and topographic conditions are necessary for a female to den successfully because she needs to dig a snow ca ve in early winter and then be snowed in as the winter progresses (Kolenosky and Prevett 1983, cited in Amstrup 2003). Females normally den on pack ice but some den on land near the coast (>20km) (Amstrup and Gardner 1994). Denning bears show some level of site fidelity; pa ck ice-denning bears repeat their den site preferen ces are do again as do terrestr ial-denning bears but general site fidelity may be due to a region rather than a specific site (Amstrup and Gardner 1994). Non-pregnant females and males may al so den depending on weather and prey availability (Aars et al. 2011). Unlike temper ate ursids (e.g., brown be ars), polar bears do
74 not need to hibernate and in stead hunt year round, except for pregnant females (Lennox and Goodship 2008). However, Arctic conditions are harsh and food scarcity can occur throughout the year therefore, polar bears have evolved an extr emely efficient and facultative metabolic state si milar to hibernation. Over e volutionary time, polar bear physiology has adapted for a feast-and-famine feeding regime to provide resilience despite environmental variation (Lunn a nd Stirling 1985; Lennox and Goodship 2008). Knowledge of polar bear survival rates remains somewhat incomplete because of the difficulty gathering sufficient data (A mstrup 2003). Cub and mother body weight are associated with cub survival and rates fo r cubs range from 30% to 50% depending on location making survival much lower than for adults (Derocher and Stirling 1996). If females are in poor condition, they may defer reproduction or sacrifice her cubs to insure her own survival (Derocher et al. 1992). Surviv al rates are higher for yearlings, exceeding 85% in some regions, and adul ts greater than 90% (Amstrup and Durner 1995). Providing they can obtain sufficient food, old age may be a prominent cause of mortality resulting from no longer being able to catch enough food or defend themselves (Amstrup 2003), though causes of mortality are difficult to dete rmine for polar bears because they often die on ice and carcasses are not recovered. Most cubs probably die from insufficient nutrition or accidents (Derocher and Stirling 1996), i.e., adult males killing and eating cubs. If cubs survive to adulthood, there se ems to be few diseases or parasites that considerably reduce polar b ear lifespan (Amstrup 2003), though this may be changing with Arctic warming.
75 REFERENCES Aars J 2011 An evaluation of different techniqu es to map polar bear maternity dens at the 19th Biennial Conference on the Biology of Marine Mamma ls, Society for Marine Mammology, Nov 27 Dec 2 Tampa, FL. Amstrup S 2003 Polar bear: Ursus maritimus in: Wild mammals of North America: Biology, management, and conservation Feldhamer GA, Thompson BC & Chapman JA, eds. 2nd ed. Balitmore, MD: John Hopkins University Press, 587-610. Amstrup S & Durner GM 1995 Survival rates of radio-collared female polar bears and their dependent young. Can J Zool 73, 1312-1322. Amstrup S & Gardner C 1994 Polar bear mate rnity denning in the Beaufort Sea. J Wildl Manage 58(1), 1-10. Amstrup S, Durner G, Stirling I & Lunn N 2000 Movements and distribution of polar bears in the Beaufort Sea. Can J Zool 78, 948-66. Bee D & Strange S [Internet] 2005 Toronto zoo polar bear foot [published February 11, 2005; accessed May 20, 2012] http://www .pbase.com/blownaway36/image/39651221 Best R 1985 Digestibility of ri nged seal by the polar bear. Can J Zool 63(5), 1033-1036. Blix A & Lentfer J 1979 Modes of thermal prot ection in polar bear c ubs at birth and on emergence from the den. Am J Physiol 236(1), R67-74. DeMaster D & Stirling I 1981 Ursus maritimus Report 145, The American Society of Mammologists. Derocher A & Stirling I 1994 Age-specific re productive performance of female polar bears. J Zool Lond 234(4), 527-36. Derocher A & Stirling I 1996 Aspects of survival in juvenile polar bears. Can J Zool 74, 1246-1252. Derocher A, Stirling I & Andriashek D 1992 Pregnancy rates a nd serum progesterone levels of polar bears in Western Hudson Bay. Can J Zool 70, 561-6. Derocher A, Andriashek D & Stirling I 1993 Terrestrial foraging by polar bears during the ice-free period in Western Hudson Bay. Arctic 46(3), 251-254. Ferguson S, Taylor M, Born E, Rosi ng-Asvid A & Messier F 2001 Activity and movement patterns of polar bears inhabiti ng consolidated versus active pack ice. Arctic 54(1), 49-54.
76 Hammill M & Smith T 1991 The role of predation in the ecology of the ringed seal in Barrow Strait, Northwest Territories, Canada. Mar Mam Sci 7(2), 123-135. Harwood LA & Stirling I 1992 Distribution of ringed seals in southe astern Beaufort Sea during late summer. Can J Zool 70(5), 891-900. Hunter F [Internet] 2010 With a bear behind: Lewis and Clark meet the grizzly bear [published January 11, 2010; accessed May 20, 2012] http://franceshunter.wordpress.com/2010/01/11/w ith-a-bear-behind-lewis-clark-meet-thegrizzly-bear/ Kolenosky GB & Prevett JP 1983 Productivity a nd maternity denning of polar bears in Ontario. International Co nference on Bear Research and Management 5, 238-245. Lennox A & Goodship A 2008 Polar bears, the most evolutionary advanced hibernators, avoid signification bone loss during hibernation. Comp Biochem Physiol A 149(2), 203208. Lunn N & Stirling I 1985 The significance of s upplemental food to polar bears during the ice-free period of Hudson Bay Can J Zool 63(10), 2291-2297. Nelson RA, Folk GE, Pfeiffer EW, Craighead JJ, Jonkel CJ & Steiger DL 1983 Behavior, biochemistry, and hibernation in black, grizzl y, and polar bears. International Conference on Bear Research and Management 5, 284-290. ritsland N 1970 Temperature re gulation of the polar bear Comp Biochem Physiol 37, 225-233. Ramsay M & Dunbrack R 1986 Physiological co nstraints on life hist ory phenomena: The example of small bear cubs at birth. Amer Nat 127(6), 735-743. Smith T 1980 Polar bear predation of ringed and bearded seals in the land-fast ice habitat. Can J Zool 58(12), 2201-2209. Stirling I 1974 Midsummer obs ervations on the behavior of wild polar bears. Can J Zool 52(9), 1191-1198. Stirling I 1977 Adaptations of Wedell and ringed seals to exploit the polar fast ice habitat in the absence or presence of surface predators in: Adaptations within Antarctic ecosystems Llano G, ed. Houston, TX 741-748. Stirling I 2011 Polar bears: The natural history of a threatened species Brighton, MA: Fitzhenry & Whiteside.
77 Stirling I & Derocher A 1990 Factors affecting the evolution and behavioral ecology of the modern bears. International Conference on Bear Research and Management 8, 189204. Stirling I & Latour P 1978 Comp arative hunting abilities of pol ar bear cubs at different ages. Can J Zool 56(8), 1768-1772. Stirling I & McEwan E 1975 The caloric value of whole ringed seals in relation to polar bear ecology and hunting behavior. Can J Zool 53(8), 1021-1027. Taylor MK, Akeeagok S, Andriashek D, Bar bour W, Born E, Calvert W, Cluff HD, Ferguson S, Laake J, Rosing-Asvid A, S tirling I & Messier F 2001 Delineating Canadian and Greenland polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) populations by cluster analysis of movements. Can J Zool 79, 690-709. Thompson D, Fogg G, Convey P, Fritsen C, G ili J, Gradinger R, Laybourn-Parry J, Reid K & Walton D 2008 The biology of polar regions New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
78 Figure 1a. Furred polar bear footpad. The footpad is furred to prevent heat loss and to allow for traction while walking on the ice (taken from Bee and Strange 2005). Figure 1b. Grizzly bear footpad (taken from Hunter 2010)
79 APPENDIX B THE INUIT Paleo-Inuit History The Inuit are descended from the Thule (t oo-lay) people, who spread from Alaska towards Greenland during the start of th e Medieval Warm Period [~950-1250 C.E.] (Maxwell 1985; Stern 2010). During their migration, the Thule encountered other cultures of the Central and Eastern Arctic, su ch as the Dorset people who had first moved eastward around 4,000 years ago, when climactic warming made such passage possible (Maxwell 1985; Stern 2010). At the same time, the Norse Vikings were exploring Greenland and Newfoundland and likely interact ed with the Thule. After the Medieval Warm Period came the Little Ice Age (1300-1 850 C.E.), which marked the disappearance of the other cultures of the North American Arctic so that by 1400 C.E., only the people now known as the Inuit remained (Stern 2010). The Norse who settled on Greenland are thought to have become disconnected from Eu rope and died out dur ing this period while the Dorset people appear to have been both conquered and assimilated by the Inuit (Maxwell 1985; Stern 2010). The Inuit were not alone for long; soon European explores entered the Arctic and began the history of southern contact th at continues today. Inuit Subsistence, Whaling, and the Formation of Canada The Inuit have long relied on a meat-based diet to satisfy their energetic needs because Arctic flora is small, sparse, a nd nutritionally insufficient (Porsild 1953). Consequently, Inuit subsistence revolved ar ound hunting and the shar ing of meat from
80 terrestrial and marine mammals (Wenzel 1991; Stern 2010). This wa s facilitated by Inuit social organization into flexible semi-nomad ic kin groups that fluctuated in size and distribution according to environmental cond itions. The groups were part of regional communities, usually encompassing two or mo re families interrelated through marriage (Stern 2010). Food sharing occurred through pr escribed and meaningful social pathways, such as from the successful hunter to the head of the extended family. Thus, hunting provided biological survival and the means fo r sharing, which established and reinforced social and kin bonds, effec tively ensuring cultural re production (Wenzel 1991; 2000). The tools used for harvesting were inherite d from the Thule and made from materials available in the Arctic or procured thr ough indigenous trading networks (Stern 2010). By the 1800s, naval explorers were fo llowed by individuals with increasingly commercial interests in the Arctic, pr imarily the exploitation of bowhead ( Balaena mysticetus ) and other whales (Stern 2010). The sout herners were not always prepared for the Arctic environment, but through trade w ith the Inuit received information and goods, such as sufficiently warm clothing, and in exchange the Inuit were introduced to industrially manufactured co mmodities, such as firearms and ammunition (Wenzel 1991). Some encounters were less consensual; ther e are numerous reports of explorers and whaling ships kidnapping Inuit for display as novelties in Europe and America (Stern 2010). Through the 1800s, there was a large influx of British immigrants to the southeastern areas of what is now Canada and in 1840, the Province of Canada was formed to unite these people into a selfgovernable unit (Careless 1964). By 1867, the Canadian Federation was formed, including the provinces of Ontario, Quebec, Nova
81 Scotia, and New Brunswick. The Northwest Terri tories ceded from Britain to join the Canadian Federation in 1870, although this did not include the Britis h Arctic Isles until 1880. The increasing European presence in so uthern Canada was accompanied by an increasing number of missionaries enteri ng the Arctic, beginning an era of more sustained contact between the Inuit and people of European descent (Stern 2010). Parallel to the experiences of other Native Ameri can peoples, the Inuit population decreased substantially with this cont act because of the introduction of novel diseases causing an estimated two-thirds of the Inuit to die fr om epidemics by the year 1900 (Crowe 1991 in Kral et al. 2011). Fur Trading and Arctic Resource Commodification (1900s 1950s) In the early 1900s, bowhead whale popul ations were in se rious decline and commercial exploitation began to focus on othe r species, such as na rwhal and arctic fox for their ivory and fur, respectively (Wenzel 1991). Unlike whaling, to procure ivory and fur in commercial quantities required much greater partnership wi th the Inuit because southern merchants did not have the time, know ledge, or skills to hunt for the materials they needed. Instead, merchants traded the In uit guns, ammunition, traps, tools, tea, cloth, molasses, and other goods for the byproducts of their subsistence ha rvest (Wenzel 2008). These manufactured goods became common aspect s of Inuit life, especially firearms and traps, which aided Inuit subsistence activities. Increasing trade with southerners created a shift in the Inuit economy; no longer was hunting solely a subsistence activity, it now produced food as well as materials that c ould be used to obtain manufactured goods (Wenzel 1991; Stern 2010).
82 Current Mixed-Economy Development The growing integration of imported t echnology and material s by the Inuit was only possible with the income earned from the sale of sealskins (Wenzel 1991). The growth of inter-dependency be tween subsistence and a monetary-based economy lead to the formation of the Inuit mixed-economy. A mixed-economy in the Inuit society suggests they are not fully reliant on eith er money or wildlife but on a cycle that incorporates both with neither product producib le without the other. Within settled Inuit communities, outside market s for Arctic animal products developed increasing opportunities for wage labor and its subseque nt cash income (Wenzel 1991; Stern 2010). The subsistence and monetary aspects of a mixed-economy are not distinct and tend to display feedback mechanism. Labor, either as a wage-paying job or hunting, is used to generate income for subsistence harvesti ng. Products and byproducts of hunting can be sold, generating cash; which in addition to wa ges, is used to buy and maintain hunting equipment that allows further wildlife harvesting. Therefore, the cash economy and the subsistence-based economy are intertwined to be almost indistinguishable (Wenzel 1991; Dowsley 2010). Initially, the Canadian Government di scouraged the settlement of Inuit groups near the increasingly prevalent missionary and trading posts, instead encouraging their continued dispersal throughout the Arctic However, in the 1950s, the government reversed this policy and began actively crea ting permanent Inuit settlements, primarily through a program of subsidized housing. This policy was intended to reduce costs of providing education and health care to indigenous people by cr eating consolidated, stable, and accessible communities (Wenzel 1986; Ster n 2010). This resettle ment constituted a
83 drastic change in Inuit lifestyle because semi-nomadism was central to successful subsistence hunting (Wenzel 1991; Stern 2010). The new pattern of Inuit distribution required new conceptions of I nuit culture and subsistence. Snowmobiles proliferated throughout the Arctic in the 1960s and enabled continued subsistence harvesting from settlemen ts by reducing travel times to important hunting areas (Wenzel 1986; 1991). Snowmob iles and motorized boats allowed Inuit hunters to continue their subsistence harvesti ng, but required larger investments of cash to purchase and maintain than firearms or traps (Wenzel 1991; Wenzel 2008). This was enabled by the profitable sealskin trade, wh ich had become a primary source of income for many Inuit communities. Settled life and an increasing reliance on manufactured goods meant that monetary income became an important aspect of the Inuit subsistence system Pressure from non-governmental organi zations and the general public brought about the US Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) (1972) and the European Economic Community ban (1983) on the impor tation of seal produ cts from Canada (Wenzel 1991; Stern 2010). Following the Europ ean ban, the income from sealskins for the Clyde River Inuit community was reduced by 92% from the previous year (Stern 2010). This reduction in income from the lo ss in the sealskin market caused serious economic issues for many Inuit communities as they relied on this this income to purchase subsistence harves ting supplies (Wenzel 1991; Stern 2010). Thus, the reduced sealskin income was a monetary loss for the Inuit and it curtailed their ability to provide their own subsistence. Polar bear sport hunting has partially filled the void left by the sealskin market cr ash (Wenzel 2008).
84 The Inuit and Contemporary Globalization Today, a majority of the Inuit in Canada live in the territory of Nunavut, which separated from the Northwest Territories a nd was given home rule through a land claims agreement signed in 1993; although, it was not un til 1999 that the territory was officially established (Stern 2010). The Nunavut La nd Claims Agreement provided the Inuit monetary compensation and fee simple title for 18% of the newly formed territory in exchange for their aboriginal title to their tr aditional lands (citation) The Government of Nunavut was thus involved in land develo pment and planning, education, wildlife management, natural resource management, health care, and property taxation. The relatively recent right to self-determinati on is a marked difference from the past relationship between the Inuit and the Government of Canada (Stern 2010). Despite growing globalizing forces, th e Nunavummiut (people of Nunavut in Inuktitut) have not embraced a monetary ca pitalist economy and continue to operate within the mixed-economy that developed during the peak sealing years (Stern 2010). Wage labor and international trade continue to exist al ongside subsistence hunting and kin-based sharing networks. What has change d is the availability and integration of manufactured southern goods in to Inuit life, which reflects the increasing accessibility of the Arctic. One of the most substantial developm ents is the proliferat ion of grocery stores in Inuit communities, providing processed and frozen foods from the south. This could be expected to decrease Inuit re liance on subsistence harvest; however, most Inuit consider country food (which incorporates the meat of species traditionally harvested, called niqituinnaq in Inuktitut) much healthier and more appealing than store food (Kral et al.
85 2011). Therefore, the use of income to gene rate the capacity for subsistence harvesting that provides food for families remains th e purpose of widespread wage-labor. In addition to globalization, the Inuit con tinue to struggle against the detrimental effects of nearly a century of colonial and imperialistic e xploitation. Worldwide, Nunavut ranks among regions with the high est suicide rates, an afflic tion that especially affects young males (Tester and McNicoll 2004). Alth ough a number of fact ors are involved, those identified as most important stem from the repercussions of th e forced settlement of Inuit populations, primarily the disruption of kinship ties and st ructure (Tester and McNicoll 2004; Kral et al. 2011). Additiona lly, many young Inuit feel confused and caught between two cultures; they perceive themselves part of both global 'modernity' and 'traditional' Inuit prac tices (Kral et al. 2011). These problems are compounded by the cu rrent widespread poverty and underor unemployment. Tuberculosis continues to thre aten Inuit communities, with at least 100 new cases reported in 2010, mostly the result of poverty and insuffi cient or overcrowded housing (MacDonald et al. 2011). In uit life expectancy in the Arctic is 8-12 years shorter than the southern Canadian average (Furgal et al. 2008). Unfortunately, the resources and ability to combat thes e social problems are limited or nonexistent. The Government of Nunavut relies on the support of the Canadian government because it has few possibilities for generating revenue. The Arctic has nonrenewable mineral resources, but their extraction is not widely supported because this may threaten ecosystem integrity and the availability and regularity of the renewa ble animal resources needed for subsistence. However, without other avenues for development, more Inuit feel that this may be their
86 best chance to create functional, healt hy, and safe communities (Wenzel 2008; Stern 2010).
87 REFERENCES Careless J 1964 Canada: A story of challenge Toronote, Canada; The MacMillan Company of Canada Limited. Dowsley M 2010 The value of a polar bear: Eval uating the role of a multiple-use resource in the Nunavut mixed economy. Arctic Anthropol 47(1), 39-56. Furgal C, Buell M, Chan L, Edge V, Martin D & Ogden N 2008 Health impacts of climate change in Canada's north in: Human health in a changi ng climate: A Canadian assessment of vulnerab ilities and adaptive capacity Sequin J, ed. Ottowa, Ontario: Health Canada, 303. Kral M, Idlout L, Minore J, Dyck R & Krimayer L 2011 Unikkaartuit: Meanings of wellbeing, unhappiness, health, and community ch ange among Inuit in Nunavut, Canada. Am J Community Psychol 48(3), 426-439. MacDonald N, Hebert P & Stanbrook M 2011 T uberculosis in Nunavut: A century of failure. Can Med Assoc J 183(7), 741. Maxwell M 1985 Prehistory of the Eastern Arctic Orlando, Florida: Academic Press Inc. Porsild A 1953 Edible plants of the Arctic. Arctic 6, 15-34. Stern 2010 The daily life of the Inuit. Santa Barbara, California: Greenwood. Tester F & McNicoll P 2004 Isumagijaksaq: Mindful of the state: Social constructions of Inuit suicide. Soc Sci & Med 58, 2625-2636. Wenzel G 1986 Canadian Inuit in a mixed economy: Thoughts on seals, snowmobiles, and animal rights. Native Studies Review 2(1), 69-82. Wenzel G 1991 Animal rights, human rights, ecology, economy and ideology in the Canadian Arctic Toronto, Canada: University of Toronto Press. Wenzel G 2000 Sharing, money, and modern Inuit subsistence: Obligation and reciprocity at Clyde River, Nunavut in: The social economy of sharing: Resource allocation and modern hunter-gatherers Wenzel G, Hovelsrud-Broda G & Kishigami N, eds. Osaka, Japan: National Museum of Ethnology, 61. Wenzel G 2008 Sometimes hunting can seem like busin ess: Polar bear sport hunting in Nunavut Alberta, Canada: CCI Press.
88 APPENDIX C GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE Climate change is long-term changes to multiple aspects of regional or global climates and refers to the potential for human alteration of the global climate system, in other words, anthropogenic clim ate change. Global climate ch ange should not be reduced to simplistic misnomers of global warming, as temperature is but one aspect; others are not easily understood in a linear fashion. Global climate change research is based on estimates, averages, and aggregations and whil e this type of data can be collected and calculated accurately, it cannot be universally applied spat ially or temporally (Cowie 2007). Weather and climate must be treated as distinct con cepts, whereas weather is a short-term expression of climate on a regional scale, the effects of climate change are long-term global trends not analogous to daily fluctuations of local weather. The climate of a given region incorporates long-term measurements and trends of temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure wind, precipitation, atmospheric particle count, and other meteorological factors. Clim ate is determined by the patterns of the atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, land surface, and biosphere, thus it is not a static state but a process with innumerable componen ts and ever changing cycles of varying lengths and frequencies. Climate science incorporates data-based and model-based approaches to study both complex interactions within the climate syst em as well as a how that system impacts humans and other organisms.
89 Effects of Climate Change Increased average global air and ocean surface temperatures, rising sea levels, ocean acidification, and decreased spatial and te mporal extent of ice and snow cover are examples of scientifically observed and accepted climate changes (Collins et al. 2007, Gautier and Fellous 2008). Changes in pr ecipitation, frequent and intense El NioSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena, and in creases in tropical storms variability and intensity are trends not easily quantified or ve rified but thought to be associated with climate change. The greenhouse gas effect the phenomenon of atmospheric gases trapping thermal energy and causing warmi ng, is the widely accepted mechanism for driving many of these changes and; a natura l result of the atmosphe re of the Earth. The greenhouse gas effect is created when light is reflected by the surface of the Earth, changed to lower frequencies and trapped by the atmosphere as it cannot travel back (Cowie 2007). Water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone, and halocarbons (compounds including one or more carbon atoms bonded to fluorine, chlorine, bromine, or iodine atoms) are so me atmospheric gasses responsible for this effect. Greater concentrations of thes e atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) will increase heat-trapping effects, causing the Earth to be warm er (Collins et al. 2007, IPCC 2007). Twelve years prior to 2007, 11 were repor ted as the warmest on record since 1850 as noted with increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and the greenhouse effect, (Collins et al. 2007). Most warming occurred in the past half-century as demonstrated between 1906 and 2005 when the average glob al warming trend was estimated 0.74 0.18 C and from 1956 to 2005 it was estim ated 0.65 0.15 C (IPCC 2007). Greater
90 atmospheric GHG concentrations sh ould not be conceived of as simple linear relationship with temperature as there are different regiona l impacts, in a similar fashion as regional ozone holes (Toon and Turco 1991). Thus, clim ate change incorporates global warming but increases in temperature and GHG emissions will cause other effects on global and regional scales. The oceans absorbs atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), which when subsequently changed into carbonic acid caus es a reduction in ocean pH levels a process called acidification (Caldiera and Wicket t 2003). In addition to absorbing CO2, the ocean absorbs increases in temperatur e, perhaps incorporating more than 80% additional heat (IPCC 2007). Higher ocean and air temperatures increase the melting rate of glaciers, ice sheets, icebergs, and sea ice, which has abioti c and biotic associated effects, including sea level rise. Between 1993 and 2003, sea levels increased an estimated 3.1 0.7 millimeters, due to runoff and higher ocean te mperatures causing an expansion of liquid water volume (IPCC 2007). Additi onally, ice melt runoff and changing patterns of global precipitation have caused near-surface ocean salinity to decrease in middle and high latitudes but has increase in lower latitudes. Patterns th roughout the world are complex and dissimilar, i.e., the Sahel, Mediterranean, and Southern Africa receive less precipitation and are experien cing droughts while Northern Eu rope, North America, and South America have increased precipita tion (Collins et al. 2007). These effects demonstrate that the global climate system is interdependent and currently being altered.
91 Anthropogenic or Natural? Global climate change is well measured (IPCC 2007) accepted as a reality by the scientific community, but remains a controversial subj ect (Hulme 2009). The scientific evidence for climate change is overwhelming and suggests current global climate change is not a natural process or cycle but inst ead driven by anthropogenic activities (IPCC 2007). GHGs emissions from energy produc tion, transportation, industry, land use changes, and agriculture are the primary m echanisms for human-induced climate change. Although other anthropogenic mechanisms are a ssociated and interact with global climate change. However, the anthropogenic versus natural debate persists, warranting a discussion of the ways humans are or may be altering the climate. Historical GHG concentrations in the atmosphere are measured by ice core analysis, which examines trapped air bubbles in the ice, that are microcosms of atmospheric concentrations age proportional to their depth (Collins et al. 2007). These cores show the last 10,000 year s had relatively stable concen trations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide in the atmosphere However, the past 200 years had relatively rapid concentration increases for GHGs, wh ich were parallel to increasing human industrialization, specifi cally in Europe, North America, and more recently Asia. In 1750, average global CO2 concentration was 280 parts per million (ppm), but by 2006 CO2 had risen to 381 ppm, perhaps the highest level in 20 million years (Pearson and Palmer 2000; Canadell et al. 2007). Between 1970 and 2004, GHG emissions increased 70% and CO2 emissions increased 80%, suggesting it was prim arily responsible for the increases (IPCC 2007). Carbon dioxide equivalency (CO2-eq) is the amount of CO2 required to cause an equal radiative forcing (defined as a change in global energy balance and often expressed
92 in watts per square meter). and can be used to compare the emission of various GHGs by. Through this calculation, the 70% increase in GHG emissi ons between 1970 and 2004 can be viewed as an increase in human emitted CO2-eqs from 28.7 to 49 gigatonnes (IPCC 2007). Additionally, between 1990 an d 2004, 28% of the increase occurred,, indicating GHG emissions growth may be mo re exponential than linear (IPCC 2007). Industrialization and other human activities are diminishing the resilience of natural processes and cycles on earth to maintain the global climate system (IPCC 2007). For example, CO2 levels are increasing directly from burning forests to clear land and indirectly by deforestati on; both of which affect CO2 concentrations because forests act as carbon sinks that normally sequester atmospheric CO2 into plant material and reduce atmospheric concentrations. The an nual airborne fraction (AF) of CO2 is the ratio of increased atmospheric CO2 to total CO2 emissions per year, which is a method for measuring the efficiency of natura l sinks in reducing atmospheric CO2 (Canadell et al. 2007). There is substantial intera nnual variability in AF because of a variety of factors (e.g., ENSO, volcanic eruptions, and etc.) that affect emissions and sequestration of atmospheric CO2. Since 1959, the AF has ranged from 0.0 to 0.8 [where 0.0 carbon sinks sequestered all CO2 emissions and 0.8 sinks sequestered only 20% of emitted CO2], however, between this period and 2 006, the AF proportional trend [(1/AF) d AF/ d t] was calculated to be +0.25 0.21% per year. This suggests a greater portion of emitted CO2 is remaining in the atmosphere instead of being sequestered by sinks. There are a number of processes, both natural phenomena, e.g., solar activity, volcanic eruptions, and humancaused activities whose effects and interactions with atmospheric gas concentrations and climactic shifts are not fully understood (IPCC
93 2007). Natural phenomena, e.g., climate change skeptics often refer to these phenomena and other natural cycles as primary climat e change drivers, however, anthropogenic radiative forcing is estimated to be ten time s greater than the radi ative forcing expected from solar activity (Collins et al. 2007). Th ere is a general consensus among scientists that most current climate changes are anth ropogenic and the current observed warming is human-induced (IPCC 2007). Scientists are increasingly understanding the potential drivers and mechanisms of climate change and developing advanced mode ls with more accurate parameters that demonstrate only by including human-related causes in these models can the current observed climate changes be possible (Collins et al. 2007). Models predict that during the next 20 years, global temperatures will rise by at least 0.2 C per decade because of current GHG concentrations and the inertia of the global climate system (IPCC 2007). The continuation of GHG emissions will increase the warming, global temperatures are projected to increase between 1.8 and 4 C during the 21st century. Additionally, changes to the carbon cycle will maintain a positive feedback loop of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations as natural sinks decrease their efficiency in removing CO2 from the atmosphere (Collins et al. 2007). Anthropogenic climate change is likely to increase in magnitude and severity over the next century leading to detrimental effects for biotic processes and many organisms, including high extinction risks ecosystem function breakdowns.
94 REFERENCES Caldiera K & Wickett M 2003 Anthropogenic carbon and ocean pH. Nature 425, 365. Canadell J, Le Quere C, Raupacha M, Fielde C, Buitenhuisc E, Ciaisf P, Conwayg T, Gillettc N,Houghtonh R & Marland G 2007 Cont ributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon inte nsity, and efficiency of natural sinks. Proc Natl Acad Sci 104(47), 18866-18870. Collins W, Colman R, Haywood J, Manning M & Mote P 2007. The physical science behind climate change. US Department of Energy. Cowie J 2007 Climate change: Biologi cal and human aspects Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Gautier C & Fellous J 2008 Introduction in: Facing climate change together Gautier C & Fellous J, eds. Cambridge, UK: Ca mbridge University Press, 1-11. Hulme M 2009 Why we disagree about climate change. The Carbon Yearbook: Annual Review of Business and Climate Change 41-43. IPCC 2007 Climate change 2007: Miti gation of climate change a contribution of working group III to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Pearson P & Palmer R 2000 At mospheric carbon dioxide con centrations over the past 60 million years. Nature 406, 695-699. Toon O & Turco R 1991 Polar stratos pheric clouds and ozone depletion. Scientific American June, 68-74.